Financial

A global energy shock hits EU GDP harder because domestic demand and external demand weaken at the same time. Related Articles: The Global Energy Sho

The global shock creates a much larger inflation peak because energy costs spread into industry, services, and traded goods. Related Articles: The G

Over-delivery produces much larger short-rate responses, with the gap widest at the shortest maturities. Related Articles: Fed Communication Strat

Germany and Switzerland show how central-bank risk can rise through different asset mixes, with foreign-exchange exposure driving Switzerland’s largest swings. Related Articles:

Balance-sheet risk rose sharply as conventional rate policy reached its limits, driven mainly by larger securities holdings. Related Articles: Fed

Treaty partners exported far more on average, though the raw gap is descriptive rather than a causal estimate. Related Articles: Middle-Power Trade

 Europe’s trade order grew through repeated waves of new and renewed agreements, not through a single grand bargain. Related Articles: Middle-Powe

Uncertainty produces a sharp and persistent investment loss, with the largest decline occurring one year after the shock. Related Articles: Trade Poli

Europe gains access to diverted trade, but the direction and scale of the effect differ sharply between the US and Chinese markets.

Retaliation redirected trade and the shift endured.

Kenya’s lower depreciation relative to many peers shows that reserve size alone does not determine currency stability. Related Articles: Foreign Exch

Lower-income workers suffer the clearest earnings loss two years after a 10% oil-price increase, showing why oil shocks quickly become inequality shocks.

Payroll growth shows that the recovery was constrained not only by demand, but also by labour supply, matching and missing work capacity. Related Articles:

A supply shock can change employment and wages while leaving unemployment too calm to reveal the real bottleneck. Related Articles: The Unemployment Rate

 As Sinpe Móvil scaled, new adopters became less urban and more likely to be lower-skill workers, showing that inclusive payment systems spread beyond the early-adopter group. Related Articles:

Europe’s capital-market deficit is not one gap, but a system-wide weakness across equity depth, market funding and bank dependence. Related Articles: Europe’s Savings Paradox: Why Abundance

The UK long-market signal rose during the Iran shock, while the frictional component stayed much flatter, showing why raw bond-market inflation signals should be filtered before being treated as true expectations.

The immigration surge was large, but projections show it was not a permanent doubling of consumer demand.

Across advanced economies, weaker construction TFP growth is associated with higher relative construction prices.

U.S. economy-wide labor productivity has risen sharply since 1950, while construction labor productivity has barely improved.