Global Oil Exports Set to Hit Record High in October, U.S.-Driven Energy Hegemony Deepens

Worldwide push to expand oil supply
Massive U.S. production and exports reshape prices
Strategy aims to choke off Russia’s energy alliances

Global oil exports are projected to surpass an unprecedented 41 million barrels per day in October. The surge is being driven by record-breaking U.S. production alongside increased shipments from major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Beyond stabilizing prices, Washington is pressing ahead with a supply glut strategy designed to undermine Russia’s oil revenues, while simultaneously restricting market access for India and China through diplomatic and trade pressure. In parallel, the U.S. is building up domestic production capacity in a bid to cement its position as the world’s energy superpower over the long term.

Market Transformation Led by the U.S.

According to OilPrice on October 1, global crude exports this month are expected to break records by exceeding 41 million barrels per day. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and consultancy FGE point to a confluence of rising output from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Brazil, and Guyana, coupled with higher U.S. production. U.S. crude output reached an all-time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, and is expected to climb to 14.34 million barrels by March next year, firmly establishing America as the central axis of global oil supply.

Saudi exports also surged, hitting 6.42 million barrels per day in September, the highest level in 18 months, up more than 600,000 barrels from the previous month. Seasonal declines in power demand boosted its export capacity. Iraq and Brazil each raised production by 120,000 barrels, while Guyana added 29,000 barrels, joining the wave of supply expansion. By contrast, Iran’s daily output fell by 100,000 barrels to 1.4 million, the lowest level in several months.

Despite production cuts by some exporters, overall supply rose, fueling a boom in maritime transport. The Atlantic Basin’s supply surge drove up charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) bound for Asia. OilPrice reported that chartering a VLCC from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia had jumped to USD 70,000 per day, while Middle East-to-China routes climbed to USD 100,000 per day, sharply raising shipping costs. While freight markets are expected to remain buoyant in the short term, oversupply in Asia is considered unavoidable by late October or early November.

Long-term price forecasts diverge. Goldman Sachs warned that an oversupply of 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026 could drive crude prices down to around USD 50 per barrel. The EIA similarly projected U.S. crude output would slip from the current 13.41 million barrels per day to 13.28 million next year, with Brent prices declining to roughly USD 51 per barrel. By contrast, Standard Chartered and others foresee a rebound, citing resilient demand and stimulus measures in the U.S. and other major economies. For now, the oil market is navigating a phase marked by short-term buoyancy from supply expansion and long-term uncertainty.

Oversupply to Lower Prices, Curtail Russia’s Revenues

Analysts highlight the strategic backdrop to the U.S. export surge. Officially framed as a bid to curb inflation and stabilize supply chains, the underlying objective is widely seen as targeting Russia. By flooding the market with crude, the U.S. seeks to depress global oil prices and erode Moscow’s export revenues.

Export patterns underscore the point. Ship-tracking firm Kpler reported that in February, U.S. exports to India averaged 357,000 barrels per day, a more than 60 percent increase from the 221,000 barrels per day shipped during the same period a year earlier. Indian refiners, facing sanctions on Russian oil, turned to U.S. supplies, with New Delhi projecting that American energy purchases could climb from USD 15 billion last year to USD 25 billion in the near term.

South Korea also emerged as a major beneficiary. U.S. exports to Korea hit a record 656,000 barrels per day in February, as China’s 10 percent tariff on American crude redirected flows within Asia. By contrast, U.S. exports to China fell to just 76,000 barrels per day, the lowest in five years. These shifts illustrate how Washington’s strategy is reshaping not only Russia’s revenues but also the broader structure of oil trade among key importers.

Russia, meanwhile, has sought to withstand sanctions by ramping up shipments. In mid-July, its seaborne exports surged to 3.64 million barrels per day, with 33 tankers carrying 25.47 million barrels in a single week. The four-week average also rose to 3.23 million barrels per day, exceeding this year’s norm. By increasing loadings at ports such as Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk, Russia temporarily offset sanctions pressure. But analysts caution that such measures may prove short-lived if U.S. oversupply continues.

Energy Hegemony as the Backbone of Long-Term Pressure on Russia

The expanding scope of U.S. sanctions further supports this interpretation. Washington has begun targeting Russia’s top buyers directly, disrupting key export routes. India, still without a completed trade deal with the U.S., has been a primary focus. In August, Washington imposed a punitive 50 percent tariff—an additional 25 percent on top of existing duties—explicitly citing India’s Russian energy imports. As recently as three years ago, Russian crude accounted for less than 3 percent of India’s imports; today, it supplies 1.75 million barrels per day, or 35 percent of total imports. The U.S. aims to curtail this dependence through direct pressure.

China has also come under fire. Washington demanded Beijing reduce purchases of Russian oil, threatening tariffs of up to 100 percent if it refused. Russia supplies about 20 percent of China’s total crude imports, boosted by the expansion of eastern routes via Vladivostok. But the U.S. is moving to neutralize traditional sanction-evasion tactics such as flag-swapping and ship-to-ship transfers by exerting direct leverage on China. While Beijing has denounced U.S. pressure, declaring that “energy security is non-negotiable,” it has left room for adjustments ahead of a potential leaders’ summit.

At the same time, the U.S. is reinforcing its own production capacity to supplant traditional producers in the long run. EIA data show U.S. energy output reached a record 103 quadrillion BTU last year. In particular, crude production from the Permian Basin has grown to 6.3 million barrels per day, laying the foundation for decisive U.S. influence over global energy markets. From this perspective, Washington’s drive to expand oil production and exports is less about defending domestic prices than about weakening Russia’s international energy alliances as part of a long-term strategy.