“A refugee crisis involving 20 million people could emerge”: Zelenskyy appeals to EU for support as funding and weapons shortages threaten Ukraine’s ability to sustain the war

“Ukraine’s defeat would trigger a mass exodus to Europe”: Zelenskyy urges EU to provide additional support
European countries face growing burdens from hosting Ukrainian refugees as support is scaled back
Ukraine, weighed down by war costs, faces mounting pressure on its ability to sustain the conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that large numbers of Ukrainians could flee to Europe if Russia wins the war. With European countries already shouldering the financial and social burdens of hosting millions of displaced Ukrainians, he highlighted the possibility of a further influx of refugees to urge the West to expand its support. Ukraine currently lacks the funding and weapons needed to wage war next year, while Russia’s large-scale missile and drone strikes are eroding its ability to sustain the conflict.

Ukrainian refugees arrive in large numbers across Europe

According to Belgian business news outlet Business AM on the 19th (all dates hereafter are local time), President Zelenskyy said at a press conference during the European Union (EU) summit in Brussels, Belgium, on the 16th that a major refugee crisis could emerge if Ukraine loses to Russia. “What would happen if we collapsed?” he asked, stressing, “We do not know how many refugees would head to Europe, but 20 million Ukrainians could pour into Europe.” He added, “We are asking Europe to protect our country because Russia will destroy us and drive our people out of their homeland,” and appealed, “Putin does not respect our sovereignty or territorial integrity, and does not recognize Ukraine as a state or a nation.”

Millions of displaced people have already arrived in Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to data released on the 12th by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, approximately 4.43 million displaced people from Ukraine had been granted temporary protection in the EU as of the end of August. This was an increase of 3,290 people, or 0.1%, from the end of the previous month. In other words, millions remain unable to return home even now, more than 4 years after the war began. By country, Germany hosted 1,294,555 people, accounting for 29.2% of all temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, followed by Poland with 939,395 people, or 21.2%, and Czechia with 398,360 people, or 9.0%. Czechia had the highest number of temporary protection beneficiaries relative to its population, at 36.5 per 1,000 residents, followed by Slovakia at 27.7 and Cyprus at 27.0.

A trend toward reduced support for refugees

Against this backdrop, major European countries are making visible moves to reduce the financial and social burdens of hosting displaced Ukrainians. Poland is a leading example. In August last year, Polish President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill extending financial support for displaced Ukrainians and called for welfare benefits to be scaled back. In particular, he argued that the monthly child allowance of PLN 800 (approximately USD 209) per child should be available only to Ukrainians working in Poland. The Polish government subsequently amended the law to make parents’ economic activity a condition for receiving child benefits. Starting in March this year, it also began restricting access to medical and social welfare services and public accommodation assistance for some economically inactive adults.

Germany is also becoming increasingly wary of further arrivals of displaced people. In June, the German government joined Poland and other countries in calling for restrictions on eligibility for EU temporary protection for Ukrainian men of conscription age, citing an increase in arrivals of Ukrainians subject to conscription in recent months. Since August, Germany has taken into account whether Ukrainians entering the EU for the first time have fulfilled their military service obligations or received an exemption when assessing eligibility for temporary protection. The Netherlands has also tightened its system requiring economically active displaced Ukrainians to pay part of their accommodation and food costs. The relevant charges were increased in October last year, and adult displaced people with income must now pay up to EUR 244.22 (approximately USD 280) per person per month toward the operating costs of public accommodation.

Table 1. Reductions in support for displaced Ukrainians in major European countries

The burden of war costs grows by the day

President Zelenskyy’s warning of a large-scale refugee influx appears to reflect these burdens facing European countries. With funding urgently needed to maintain Ukraine’s front lines, he directly highlighted the consequences of delays in Western support and urged swift decisions. In April, the EU had already given final approval to a loan package totaling EUR 90 billion (approximately USD 103 billion) to meet Ukraine’s financial and defense needs. The funds will be disbursed over the 2 years from 2026 to 2027. Of this, EUR 60 billion (approximately USD 68.9 billion) is allocated to weapons procurement and expansion of defense industry production capacity, while the remaining EUR 30 billion (approximately USD 34.4 billion) is earmarked for general budget support, including maintaining public services and restoring key infrastructure such as energy and transport.

The problem is that Russia’s recent series of airstrikes has generated enormous additional expenses, making it difficult to cover the costs of war with this loan package alone. At the EU summit on the 16th, President Zelenskyy said that the cost of waging war next year was expected to reach EUR 155 billion (approximately USD 178 billion). He stressed, “We need at least another EUR 70 billion (approximately USD 80.4 billion) to maintain our defense, weapons and national resilience,” adding, “This is a realistic amount, and it will help us hold Russia back.”

Weapons supply disruptions intensify

In a speech the same day, President Zelenskyy also appealed, “Thanks to drones, we are repelling most Russian attacks on the front lines,” adding, “We can currently double or triple production, depending on the type of drone, but we do not have enough funding to do so.” In other words, Ukraine has the production capacity but cannot expand drone manufacturing because of budget shortages. Financial constraints have also affected its ability to secure long-range strike weapons. Late last month, Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky said, “We need to close a funding gap of USD 27 billion (approximately USD 27.6 billion) to maintain orders for weapons needed for combat operations early next year.” He noted, “Our ability to conduct active combat operations, including in the first quarter of 2027, depends on this funding, and our long-range strike capabilities and ability to conduct operations targeting Russian territory could also be affected.”

Air defenses are also in a precarious state. On the 15th, The Washington Post (WP) reported that Ukraine’s stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles, used to defend against Russian ballistic missile attacks, had fallen sharply. Repeated Russian missile strikes have increased interceptor consumption, while inconsistent deliveries of U.S. aid have disrupted replenishment. Some Patriot interceptor missiles purchased with funding from European countries have reportedly also failed to reach Ukraine because the U.S. government has delayed approval of their transfer.

Large-scale airstrikes cause mounting casualties

Amid these problems, recent developments in the war have also been unfavorable to Ukraine. As Russia continues missile and drone strikes across the country, civilian casualties and damage to critical infrastructure are mounting. According to Reuters, beginning on the night of the 18th, Russian forces launched a large-scale aerial assault, firing 16 ballistic missiles at the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and nearby areas and deploying more than 200 drones across the country. The attacks struck a broad area stretching from Kharkiv and Dnipro in the east to Odesa in the south and Volyn and Rivne in the west. More than 10 energy facilities were damaged, and over 500,000 households lost power. At least 10 civilian deaths were also reportedly confirmed.

The severity of the situation becomes even more apparent when the figures are viewed over a broader period. According to a report released on the 15th by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), the war between Russia and Ukraine killed at least 328 civilians and injured 2,105 last month. Total civilian casualties rose 85% from the same month a year earlier, while the death toll was the highest for any September since the full-scale invasion in 2022. Meanwhile, Russia intends to continue its offensive against Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure. On the 16th, the Associated Press reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had visited the military leadership and ordered air operations against Ukraine to continue. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reportedly also briefed him on the results of attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities and said strikes on bridges, railways and data centers would continue.