Shift in Investment Culture from Saving to Spending
Growing Expectations for an End to the ‘Lost 30 Years’
Worsening Supply-Demand Imbalance Suggests Peak Still Ahead

Japan’s real estate market is heating up, fueled by the active entry of younger generations and foreign capital. Investors in their 20s and 30s are turning away from traditional savings and increasingly favoring investments in tangible assets, becoming a core force in the income-generating property market. At the same time, large-scale capital inflows are being drawn by Japan’s low interest rates and weak yen. While some warn that prices may be nearing their peak, demand is expected to remain strong due to limited new supply and policy incentives.

Gen Z Takes the Lead in Japan's Property Market

According to global real estate consultancy Savills, Tokyo’s residential rental market is showing clear strength. In Q1 2025, the average rent in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose by 5.0% quarter-over-quarter to ¥4,547 per square meter, and by 7.3% year-over-year. In the city’s five central wards, average rents increased for the seventh consecutive quarter, reaching ¥5,524 per square meter—up 9.9% from the same period last year.

This rent growth is linked to rising prices for compact condominiums, commonly referred to as “one-room mansions,” which are seen as stable investment vehicles. According to Tokyo Kantei, the average price of newly built one-room condos in 2023 reached ¥32.86 million, a 50% increase from ¥21.79 million in 2004. The strategy of buying low and generating rental income, or securing a steady post-retirement income source, has fueled this demand amid limited supply.

These trends are closely tied to structural shifts in Japanese society. With ultra-low interest rates persisting, many have realized that savings alone can’t grow their wealth. Growing distrust in Japan’s pension system has further pushed younger generations to invest actively. Millennials and Gen Z, in particular, are now driving momentum back into a market that had previously stagnated, viewing real estate as both a secure and profitable asset.

Unlike older generations, these young investors take a hybrid approach that blends personal residence and rental income. They also rely heavily on social media to share insights and consume real estate content, earning them a reputation as well-informed, agile market players. Their aggressive investment style is changing the pace and structure of the market.

Investment Appeal Grows on Weak Yen and Low Rates

Adding to the momentum, major global investors like Morgan Stanley and MUFG are ramping up their activity. Morgan Stanley has launched a ¥100 billion real estate fund targeting offices, multi-family housing, logistics facilities, and hotels in Tokyo and other key cities. This move signals more than portfolio diversification—it reflects confidence in a structural transformation of the Japanese economy.

Japan’s largest financial group, MUFG, also plans to inject ¥100 billion into the real estate sector over the next three years. The bank has already committed ¥30 billion to launch a fund and is considering scaling it up to ¥200 billion through additional outside capital. For MUFG, long seen as a finance-focused institution, this shift signals strong belief in the long-term profitability and potential of Japanese real estate.

This surge in investment is underpinned by growing optimism that Japan’s “Lost 30 Years” may finally be ending. After decades of stagnation due to low growth and population decline, signs of recovery—such as stronger corporate earnings, rebounding tourism, and tighter property supply—are emerging. In March 2023, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Nationwide, average land prices rose 2.7% last year, the highest growth since 1991.

Worries About Overheating, But Upward Momentum Continues

Despite the optimism, some analysts are sounding alarms over possible overheating. Concerns center not only on high property prices, but also on broader market imbalances. One indicator is the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) in Tokyo’s property market, which hit a record 28.93 for new condominiums last year. Some observers warn that the current speculative fervor resembles the lead-up to Japan’s real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s.

However, on the ground, sentiment remains bullish. Demand continues to outstrip supply, pushing prices higher. Japan’s real estate development regulations are known for being stringent, with strict zoning, height restrictions, and redevelopment rules. Additionally, booming demand for home renovations means new construction is unlikely to ramp up quickly.

On the demand side, there’s little sign of slowdown. Youth-driven investment and inflows of foreign capital continue, and government efforts to boost inbound tourism are further spurring demand for commercial real estate. If the weak yen persists, foreign buyers seeking either personal use or rental income are likely to increase. With minimal pressure for interest rate hikes, Japan’s property market remains more accessible than many others, reducing fears of an imminent crash. In short, despite warnings of a peak, the Japanese real estate market remains in a sustained upward phase.

Constructive Discussions Took Place, But Details Not Yet Disclosed
Consensus on the Need for Dialogue Before It's Too Late
In the End, ‘Tariffs’ Become the Next Negotiation Benchmark 

The United States and China announced “substantial progress” immediately following two days of trade negotiations. Although specific details have yet to be disclosed, even the anticipation of a joint statement has drawn global market attention. The key issue going forward will be whether high tariffs are reduced, a decision that could serve as the baseline for future negotiations and a pivotal moment for global trade order.

Joint Statement Scheduled for Release on the 12th

According to Bloomberg News on the 11th (local time), U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR representative Jamison Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Li Chenggang, China’s chief trade negotiator, at Villa Saladin in Geneva, Switzerland. Bloomberg reported that the talks on this day continued for several hours, following 10 hours of negotiation the previous day.

Secretary Bessent described the discussions with China as very productive. Speaking to reporters afterward, he stated, “The two countries made substantial progress in key areas of trade,” and called it “a very positive development.” Greer added, “It’s important to understand how quickly we’ve come to agreement—perhaps a sign that the differences between us were not as vast as previously thought.” He also praised the Chinese delegation as “very strong negotiators,” noting that the meeting proceeded in a spirit of cooperation, mutual interest, and mutual respect.

Vice Premier He Lifeng echoed the sentiment, calling the talks “frank, in-depth, and constructive,” and affirmed that “significant progress” had been achieved. He said, “This meeting marks an important first step in which we reached major consensus,” and confirmed that both sides agreed to establish a trade and economic dialogue mechanism, with follow-up discussions to come soon. While differences and friction may persist between the two nations, China believes that active dialogue can bring greater certainty and stability to the global economy. A joint statement summarizing the meeting is expected to be released on the morning of the 12th.

While diplomats welcome the resumption of dialogue, most believe that concrete outcomes may not be immediately visible. The prevailing view is that major differences between the two sides and the political stakes involved make it unlikely that a comprehensive agreement was reached. In fact, just before the talks began on the 9th, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt reiterated President Donald Trump’s position that he would not unilaterally lower tariffs on China, emphasizing, “We need real concessions from China.”

U.S. Faces Inflation Pressure, China Faces Export Slowdown → Shared Urgency

Behind the agreement to hold talks lies a shared sense of urgency from both countries: “We must act before it’s too late.” Both the U.S. and China are under economic and political pressure and are desperate for a breakthrough. In the U.S., high tariffs on Chinese goods have driven up import prices, directly impacting low-income consumers. With President Trump pledging to stabilize prices and restore economic growth, postponing talks with China was not a viable option, experts say.

China, too, is under strain. With major export markets slowing, instability in the domestic real estate sector, and soaring youth unemployment, the prevailing view is that "reviving exports is essential for economic recovery." Despite efforts to stimulate domestic consumption, the effects have been limited. The government appears to have concluded that economic recovery is unlikely without restoring trade with the U.S. Furthermore, government subsidies for exporters have reached their limits, making full trade normalization an urgent priority.

A central issue in the talks is fentanyl. The U.S. has long accused China of supplying the raw materials used to produce fentanyl in countries like Mexico, which then flows into the U.S., urging China to take stronger action. In response, China made a notable gesture by including Wang Xiaohong, the top drug enforcement official, in the delegation — signaling willingness to address the issue.

Should the two sides reach visible agreement on fentanyl, that could pave the way for a symbolic reduction in tariffs. Currently, the U.S. imposes a combined 145% tariff on Chinese products related to fentanyl (20% fentanyl-specific tariff + 125% general reciprocal tariff), while China imposes 125% in return. A Chinese commitment to help curb fentanyl could justify a reduction of at least the 20% specific tariff. Further tariff cuts may be negotiated in conjunction with discussions on export controls and market access.

A Strategic Tug-of-War Balancing Political Timelines with Economic Interests

The international community is watching closely for tangible results. Both sides continue to emphasize “progress,” but no detailed roadmap for tariff adjustment has been revealed. Ahead of the talks, President Trump had suggested he might lower tariffs on Chinese imports by up to 80%, signaling openness to compromise, but also remarked that “a deal is not necessary right now,” employing a strategic mix of pressure and flexibility.

This reflects the deep connection between tariff policy and political calculation. Given the Trump administration’s tough stance on China, any unilateral tariff reduction risks political backlash. Hence, the talk of conditional reductions — such as “if China helps resolve the fentanyl issue” — serves as a way to frame compromises as diplomatic victories. This aligns with President Trump’s political strategy of presenting foreign policy wins as campaign achievements.

From China's perspective, tariff relief is essential to reviving exports. High tariffs have eroded price competitiveness, so lifting them could quickly boost trade volume. However, China is unlikely to accept all U.S. conditions as it did in the past. It’s expected to adopt a strategy of selective concessions that balances domestic industry protection with preserving national dignity.

Japan’s Rice Prices More Than Double Compared to Last Year
“Even Rice Thieves Are on the Rise” — Daily Life Hit Hard
Unprecedented Move: Japan Imports South Korean Rice

In a country where rice is more than just food—woven deeply into its culture, identity, and everyday life—the sudden spike in rice prices has sparked alarm across Japan. What began quietly in the summer of 2024 has grown into a nationwide crisis, now dubbed the "Reiwa Rice Uproar." From supermarket shelves to dinner tables, and even neighborhood storage sheds, the effects of this rice shortage are being felt in every corner of society. The combination of environmental stress, government policy missteps, and global demand has sent the price of Japan’s most essential staple soaring—and is now forcing Japanese citizens to change how they eat, how they shop, and even how they secure their food.

The “Reiwa Rice Uproar”: A Crisis That Won’t Subside

Japan's rice crisis intensified in the summer of 2024 and has continued into 2025 with little relief. Official data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, released on May 7, highlights the ongoing price surge. During the week of April 21–27, the average price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice sold in supermarkets reached 4,233 yen (approximately 41,000 KRW or $27.50). This was a modest 13 yen rise from the previous week but more than double the price of 2,088 yen recorded during the same period in the previous year—a sharp and alarming inflation rate for a food item central to Japanese cuisine.

The situation has been labeled the "Reiwa Rice Uproar," referencing Japan’s current imperial era. But behind the catchy phrase lies a complex web of causes. One of the primary drivers has been extreme weather, particularly record summer heat, which has led to poor harvests and damaged crop yields across key rice-producing regions. Adding fuel to the fire, the Japanese government has implemented policies to reduce rice production, including deliberate efforts to curb rice planting in favor of other crops—a strategy meant to stabilize supply-demand imbalances that, ironically, backfired in the face of climate disruptions.

Compounding these issues is the phenomenon of panic buying, with consumers and businesses hoarding rice supplies in anticipation of further shortages. Additionally, post-pandemic tourism—a welcomed economic boost for many sectors—has inadvertently worsened the crisis. As international tourists return to Japan in droves, their demand for traditional rice-based meals is placing extra strain on domestic supply.

In response, the Japanese government has attempted to stabilize the market by releasing reserve rice stocks through a series of public auctions. Three rounds have already taken place, with the reserve rice priced at around 3,500 yen per 5 kilograms. However, these measures have had limited success. According to a report by the Asahi Shimbun, distribution delays have left only 1.4% of reserve rice reaching retail outlets and supermarkets by mid-April, rendering the intervention practically ineffective.

Crime in the Cupboard and Changes on the Table

While the economic impact of the rice crisis is significant, it is the social consequences that reveal the crisis's depth. The strain on household budgets has led to a rise in food-related crime, especially in suburban and rural areas where residents often store bulk rice at home. In Ibaraki Prefecture, just north of Tokyo, police have reported 14 separate cases of rice theft since the beginning of the year, with the stolen quantities totaling approximately 4.5 tons. Authorities suspect that these thefts are motivated by profit, as stolen rice can be resold in secondary markets at high prices.

Chiba Prefecture, located adjacent to Tokyo, has also seen a spike in rice-related theft. One particularly brazen case involved 160 kilograms of rice stolen from a residential shed overnight. In Asahi City, part of northeastern Chiba, four separate thefts were reported in one month alone, with a cumulative loss of about 1 ton of rice. Police have launched investigations but warn that such thefts may become more common as prices remain high and black-market demand grows.

Faced with these economic and security pressures, Japanese households are adjusting their eating habits. Many are turning to glutinous barley (mochi mugi)—a nutritious, chewy grain that blends well with rice—to stretch their rice rations and feel fuller on less. Others are replacing rice meals entirely with cheaper alternatives like bread and pasta. Convenience store chains such as Lawson have also adapted, incorporating barley into their popular onigiri (rice ball) products, maintaining retail prices without absorbing further losses.

These changes signal a broader shift in Japan’s culinary culture. While rice has long been a symbol of prosperity and comfort, economic necessity is now driving consumers toward more cost-effective, if less traditional, options.

A Rare Solution: Importing Korean Rice

In a move that would have once seemed politically and economically improbable, Japan has begun importing rice from South Korea—a rare and telling sign of the crisis’s severity. According to Nonghyup International and the Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (aT), Japan imported 2 tons of South Korean rice in early April after completing customs procedures. Shortly afterward, an additional 20 tons were shipped, totaling 22 tons of imported rice.

This rice, sold under the brand name “Ttangkkeut Sunshine”, was produced by Okcheon Nonghyup in Haenam County, South Jeolla Province. Harvested in 2024 and milled in March 2025, the rice is now being sold through online platforms such as the Nonghyup website, Amazon Japan, and physical outlets in Shin-Okubo, Tokyo’s Koreatown. The price for South Korean rice, including shipping, is 9,000 yen (about 90,000 KRW or $59) for 10 kilograms, and 4,104 yen (about 41,000 KRW or $27) for 4 kilograms.

What makes this development especially remarkable is how rare South Korean rice exports to Japan have been historically. According to KATI (Korea Agro-Trade Information), there were only two previous instances—in 2011 and 2012, following the Great East Japan Earthquake—when Korean rice entered Japan, and both times it was for disaster relief, not commercial sale. This is the first time in decades that Korean rice has been imported to Japan as a consumer product.

Despite a hefty import tariff of 341 yen (around 3,400 KRW or $2.25) per kilogram, the explosive rise in Japanese rice prices has made Korean rice economically viable. As one market insider explained, “Even with the high tariff, the relative affordability of Korean rice has allowed it to compete with domestic products that are now simply too expensive for average consumers.”

Japan’s rice crisis is no longer just about economics or agriculture—it’s about culture, public confidence, and survival. As the government scrambles for solutions and households reimagine daily meals, this once-stable staple has become a barometer for broader structural strains. Whether the crisis will push Japan toward long-term changes in food security policy or merely serve as a painful chapter in the Reiwa era remains to be seen. For now, glutinous barley and imported grains are stepping in where domestic rice can no longer go.

Domestic Consumption Freezes in Argentina
Aims to Circulate Undeclared Dollar Assets
Concerns Over Peso Devaluation and Policy Sustainability

In a nation long battered by economic volatility, inflation, and financial distrust, Argentina is launching what could be its boldest economic experiment yet. President Javier Milei’s government is urging citizens to bring to light what it calls “under-the-bed dollars”—a vast reserve of hidden cash assets estimated to exceed $270 billion. These funds, hoarded over decades of crises, represent more than just personal wealth; they could be the country’s final hope to stave off economic collapse.

This latest push is not just about jumpstarting the economy—it is a last-ditch effort to stabilize the peso, pay down mounting foreign debt, and restore trust in the financial system. With IMF loans dwindling, inflation climbing, and reserves running dry, the government is placing a national bet on the psychology, patriotism, and financial behavior of its own people.

“Stop Hiding Your Assets, Open Your Wallets”

On May 11, local media outlets like Perfil reported that the Milei administration is preparing to unveil a new policy aimed at mobilizing what it refers to as “under-the-bed dollars.” The term, once used literally to describe U.S. cash stashed beneath mattresses, now encompasses undeclared cash stored in local safe deposit boxes, offshore private banking accounts, and tax shelters around the world.

This initiative reflects the government’s growing desperation—and its faith that the Argentine people themselves hold the key to national recovery. The government estimates that these hidden funds total about $271.2 billion USD, equivalent to 379 trillion KRW. That massive amount of private wealth has been accumulated over decades of inflation, devaluation, and political instability that have repeatedly eroded confidence in the national currency, the Argentine peso.

Real estate transactions, for instance, are commonly conducted in dollars—a reflection not only of habit but of deep distrust in the peso’s long-term value. With the formal economy starved of dollars and the country facing a $25 billion USD debt repayment due in 2026, the government views these hidden funds as an untapped lifeline.

While some officials, such as Economy Minister Luis Caputo, emphasize the goal of revitalizing consumer spending—stimulating purchases of property, cars, and electronics—experts see a deeper objective. According to Perfil, the real motivation behind the policy is to inject liquidity into the market, defend the peso against devaluation, and avert a deeper financial crisis.

A Familiar Strategy, Reintroduced with Higher Stakes

This isn’t the first time Argentina has called on its citizens to step forward with undeclared wealth. Just a year ago, the government implemented a remarkably similar amnesty program that offered generous incentives: up to $100,000 USD in tax-free declarations, a five-year period of reduced property tax rates, and the ability to lock in favorable tax rates through 2038.

And it worked—at least initially. In just two months, the Argentine financial sector saw $728 million USD and $749 million USD in inflows during July and August. These numbers dwarfed the $532 million USD brought in over the next seven months following President Milei’s inauguration in December 2023, suggesting that a well-designed incentive program could indeed lure hidden capital into the light.

But this history also includes cautionary tales. Over the past two decades, Argentina has launched a tax amnesty every four years, and many citizens who disclosed assets in good faith later found themselves penalized. For example, the 2019 Peronist government hiked the wealth tax from a mere 0.25% to 1.75% for domestic assets and 2.25% for foreign-held ones—a steep jump that caught many declarants off guard.

Those who had complied with previous amnesties were left feeling betrayed, and such experiences have fostered deep skepticism. Today, that lingering distrust threatens to undermine the effectiveness of even the most generous policies. Citizens now wonder: if I disclose my hidden assets now, will the government change the rules later?

To overcome this hesitation, the Milei government is combining regulatory incentives with psychological appeals. It is promoting the policy as an opportunity to invest in the country’s future—and framing those who participate not just as financial actors, but as patriots helping their nation survive a historic crisis.

A Nation on the Edge: Will Trust Win Over Fear?

Despite its hopeful messaging, the backdrop to this policy is one of national fiscal emergency. Argentina has already sought an additional $20 billion USD in loans from the IMF, signaling that even traditional lifelines are running dry. As debt obligations accumulate and foreign reserves plummet, the government finds itself with little choice but to turn inward—asking its citizens to fund the country’s survival with their own stashed-away wealth.

But time is tight. Inflation remains entrenched in double-digit territory, and pressures for currency devaluation continue to build. President Milei has long vowed that he would never allow devaluation, even branding economists who advocate for it as “frauds.” Yet in a subtle but significant policy shift, his administration recently abandoned the crawling peg exchange rate system, indicating a growing acceptance of market realities.

This means Argentina is now operating in a highly precarious window: it must restore trust quickly enough for the stimulus policy to succeed, while holding off the financial pressures that could send the economy spiraling. If the hidden dollars remain hidden, and citizens decide not to take the government’s offer seriously, the consequences could be dire.

Without that trust, Argentina risks another sovereign default, which would again trigger harsh IMF-imposed austerity programs—the kind that slashed social spending, gutted public services, and deepened poverty in previous decades. The fear is not just that the policy might fail—but that if it does, Argentina could fall into a fiscal black hole from which it may not easily return.

Argentina’s appeal to its people is clear: bring your hidden dollars into the light and help rebuild the economy. But whether this initiative becomes a story of national recovery or another chapter in a long saga of economic disappointment depends on trust—between government and citizens, past and present, rhetoric and reality.

This is more than a policy experiment. It is a nation’s plea for unity in the face of collapse, and possibly its last card on the table.

China’s CATL to Raise $4 Billion Through Hong Kong IPO
Can It Overcome U.S. Government Interference?
Hong Kong Market Rebound and U.S.-China Trade Talks Offer Tailwinds

As the global electric vehicle (EV) market matures and geopolitical tensions continue to mount, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL), the world’s largest battery manufacturer, is preparing for a pivotal financial move. The Chinese battery giant has set its sights on listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, seeking to raise substantial capital to fund its expanding operations in Europe. But this isn't merely a routine public offering. CATL's IPO is unfolding against a backdrop of competing forces: a recovering Hong Kong stock market, renewed trade dialogue between the U.S. and China, and a steady stream of political roadblocks from Washington.

This ambitious plan could mark a turning point not only for CATL but also for China's broader industrial landscape, as companies navigate the increasingly narrow path between international opportunity and geopolitical constraint.

CATL’s Strategic IPO and European Expansion

On May 11, international outlets including Bloomberg and Reuters reported that CATL had submitted its preliminary listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company plans to offer 117.9 million shares, with 109.1 million allocated to institutional investors and 8.8 million reserved for retail investors. The maximum offering price is set at 263 Hong Kong dollars, or roughly 47,000 Korean won, representing a modest 1.4 percent discount compared to CATL’s Shenzhen closing price of 248.27 yuan (approximately 48,000 won) just two days earlier.

If the shares are priced at the upper limit, CATL’s total market capitalization would reach around 31.077 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to about 4 billion U.S. dollars or 5.6 trillion Korean won. And if investor demand warrants the activation of the greenshoe option—a provision that allows the sale of additional shares beyond the initial allotment—the IPO could ultimately scale to a maximum of 5.3 billion dollars, or roughly 7.44 trillion won.

The funds raised through this public offering are earmarked for investment in CATL’s European operations. The company already maintains production bases in Germany and Hungary and is in the process of launching a new facility in Spain. This expansion comes at a critical time when the global EV industry is grappling with what analysts refer to as the “EV chasm”—a temporary decline in demand that has created short-term uncertainty in the sector. CATL appears intent on overcoming this slump through proactive infrastructure investment and international market positioning, seeking to maintain its global leadership and secure long-term competitiveness.

Washington’s Pushback and Political Interference

Despite its strategic vision, CATL’s path forward has been complicated by escalating political pressure from the United States. In 2023, the company announced a high-profile partnership with Ford to build a lithium battery plant in Michigan. The move, while significant for CATL’s entry into the U.S. market, immediately drew scrutiny from lawmakers. The U.S. House of Representatives launched three investigations into the project, leading to two separate construction halts.

That same year, the U.S. Department of Defense requested that CATL suspend its planned installation of batteries at a Marine Corps training facility in North Carolina, citing national security concerns. CATL complied and discontinued its involvement in the project.

The opposition extended beyond U.S. soil and directly targeted CATL’s Hong Kong IPO. On April 18, the Financial Times reported that Congressman John Moolenaar, Chair of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, sent letters to JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, urging them to withdraw support for the listing. In his communications, Moolenaar warned that continued involvement in CATL’s IPO could expose the banks to significant regulatory, financial, and reputational risks. He expressed concern that American financial institutions, including JP Morgan, were actively promoting the public listing of what he described as a Chinese military-affiliated company, despite being fully aware of its designations and alleged ties to sanctioned entities.

These direct warnings from U.S. lawmakers reflect the increasingly aggressive stance Washington is taking against Chinese firms operating globally, particularly those with strategic importance or perceived connections to the state. The campaign to discourage Western financial support for CATL's public offering represents a broader effort to sever China’s industrial champions from international capital.

Shifting Market Winds and the Road Ahead

While U.S. political interference persists, recent developments in Asian markets and economic diplomacy offer CATL a more favorable environment. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange, after a period of stagnation, has begun showing signs of recovery. On May 8, it rose by 1.1 percent, hitting its highest point in a month. This modest rally was buoyed by a series of economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government that have helped to partially restore investor confidence.

The People’s Bank of China recently reduced its policy interest rate by 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage points, signaling its intent to inject liquidity into the economy. These moves follow earlier measures such as cuts to banks’ reserve requirement ratios and policy actions aimed at stabilizing the financial and real estate markets. Together, these interventions have created a more supportive backdrop for IPOs and capital raising efforts by Chinese firms.

At the same time, renewed trade dialogue between the United States and China has introduced a sliver of diplomatic optimism. From May 10 to 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer met with Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Vice Minister Li Chenggang, at Villa Saladin in Geneva. After the discussions, Bessent described the talks as productive and noted that the two countries had made substantial progress in key trade areas. Greer echoed that sentiment, emphasizing that the speed with which both sides moved toward an agreement suggested their differences were not as vast as previously believed.

These developments, while not directly resolving the challenges CATL faces, contribute to a more stable and encouraging market climate. Industry analysts believe that if CATL succeeds in its Hong Kong IPO under these conditions, it could set an important precedent for other Chinese firms seeking global capital through Hong Kong rather than Shanghai, which continues to face structural and regulatory limitations. As one market expert noted, the success of CATL’s IPO could establish a positive example of how global investment can still flow into Chinese industry despite mounting geopolitical tension. If more companies follow suit, the resulting capital influx could ease the financial strain on China's industrial sector and help sustain its long-term development.

U.S. and U.K. Finalize Comprehensive Trade Deal
Japan Continues Talks Through Repeated Ministerial-Level Negotiations
India Advances Rapidly, While South Korea Remains Stalled

The United States and the United Kingdom have successfully concluded a trade agreement. This marks the first such deal since the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs of up to 145% on countries around the world. The market is now closely watching the progress of trade negotiations with other key nations that the U.S. has identified as top targets for talks—namely India, Japan, and South Korea.

UK and U.S. Conclude Comprehensive Trade Agreement Amid Renewed Bilateral Momentum

On June 8 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a comprehensive trade agreement with the United Kingdom during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C. The event was attended by Vice President J.D. Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer joining via conference call.

“This is a historic day—both because it marks the anniversary of our shared victory in World War II and because of this landmark trade agreement,” President Trump said. “There’s no better day to announce such a great deal.” He praised Prime Minister Starmer’s negotiating team, calling it “brilliant,” and lauded the strength of the bilateral partnership.

According to Trump, the agreement significantly expands U.S. access to the UK market, especially for agriculture and energy exporters. “This will be a great deal for both nations,” he stated. “When countries respect the United States and bring serious proposals to the table, they’ll find we’re open for business. More deals will follow.”

Under the agreement:

- Tariffs on up to 100,000 British-made vehicles exported to the U.S. will be reduced from 25% to 10%.

- Tariffs on British steel and aluminum will be lifted.

- A 10% baseline reciprocal tariff remains in place.

- The UK will open its market to U.S. ethanol, beef, agricultural goods, and machinery.

- The deal includes fast-track access for U.S. goods and reduced non-tariff barriers.

Japan, India, and South Korea Eye Next Steps

With the U.S.-UK negotiations wrapped up, attention now turns to the next round of top-priority talks. The Trump administration had previously identified five countries for priority negotiations during a 90-day tariff moratorium: the UK, Japan, Australia, India, and South Korea.

Japan was the first to begin formal discussions. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Trump had authorized trade talks aimed at ushering in a new “golden age” of global commerce. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba held a 25-minute call to formally initiate the process.

Following that, ministerial- and working-level negotiations have been ongoing. Japanese media report that during the second round of ministerial talks, Japan floated potential concessions including relaxed U.S. auto safety standards and expanded tariff-free imports of corn, soybeans, and rice. However, official details remain undisclosed.

India and South Korea's Gradual Approach

India, meanwhile, is advancing steadily. On June 8, Commerce Secretary Lutnick told Bloomberg TV that India was “very proactive” in negotiations and likely to be among the next to strike a deal. The two sides launched bilateral trade talks in February and agreed in May to develop a detailed roadmap for a broader trade pact. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed that a finalized Terms of Reference (TOR) had been agreed, laying the foundation for eliminating unfair trade practices and opening new markets for U.S. exports.

South Korea is progressing at a more measured pace. Following a “2+2” high-level economic dialogue last month, the two sides narrowed their agenda to cover tariffs, non-tariff issues, investment cooperation, economic security, and digital trade. While the U.S. has yet to present formal demands—such as on beef age restrictions or Google Maps data export—those topics are expected to arise around Greer’s planned visit to Seoul next week.

Korea's caretaker government, which is set to transition following the June 3 presidential election, has stated it will not conclude any trade deal until the new administration is in place. Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun, who leads the U.S. trade negotiations, said during a parliamentary session on May 30, “It is procedurally impossible to reach a final conclusion before election day.”

Japan and Taiwan Take a Wait-and-See Approach to Alaska LNG Exports
South Korea Maintains Cautious Stance, Citing Need for Project Feasibility
Thailand, With Significant Trade Surplus with U.S., Joins the Project

The large-scale liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project "AKLNG," currently being promoted by the U.S. state of Alaska, has hit a snag. Key Asian countries considered core customers—such as Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea—are increasingly reluctant to participate in the project. However, it has been confirmed that Thailand is engaging in substantive discussions with the U.S. side and is moving toward finalizing investment plans.

AKLNG Project Struggles to Attract Asian Buyers Amid Uncertainty

On May 9, the Anchorage Daily News reported that major Asian nations have shown lukewarm responses to the Alaska LNG (AKLNG) export project, casting doubt on its long-term viability. Spearheaded by the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC) and private partner GlennParn, the AKLNG project aims to transport natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to the southern port of Nikiski via an 800-mile pipeline for export to Asia. Despite branding AKLNG as a clean energy solution for coal-reducing Asian economies, AGDC has yet to secure any binding foreign investment.

In Taiwan, the response has been non-committal. Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy’s recent visit yielded only a non-binding letter of intent with President Lai Ching-te, falling short of tangible outcomes.

Japan has been more definitive. Despite former President Donald Trump touting potential Japanese participation in February, AGDC clarified in a Senate committee hearing that no official joint project with Japan exists. The Japan Times echoed this sentiment, citing Japanese government sources and Osaka Gas, which stated it has no immediate plans to purchase additional U.S. LNG.

Korea Remain Cautious

South Korea is similarly hesitant. Following a bilateral meeting with USTR's Jamieson Greer, Korean Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun told reporters that project feasibility remains uncertain. “If we make an investment based on expectations that turn out to be economically unviable, the national consequences could be severe,” he warned.

Asian countries are cautious due to multiple layers of risk. Although Alaska touts AKLNG’s ability to deliver LNG at $6.70 per MMBtu, analysts say actual prices could rise due to infrastructure and capital costs. Multinational energy giants like ExxonMobil have previously exited the project over economic concerns.

Political stability is another concern. U.S. policy on Arctic resource development has historically shifted with each administration. Given that commercial production from AKLNG is expected only by 2030—after President Trump’s current term—Asian buyers face long-term risk, especially nations like South Korea that depend heavily on timely LNG deliveries.

Thailand Expresses Concrete Interest

In contrast, Thailand has shown genuine enthusiasm. On May 8, Thai outlet The Nation reported that Bangkok is considering importing up to 5 million tons of LNG annually from Alaska. Thailand’s Ministry of Energy has tasked state-owned enterprises PTT and EGCO with initiating negotiations for joint development and long-term LNG purchase.

Deputy Energy Minister Prasert Sinsukprasert visited the U.S. to meet with Governor Dunleavy and other stakeholders. “AKLNG could secure long-term, competitively priced LNG for Thailand and support our ambitions to become an Asian LNG hub,” he stated.

Observers suggest Thailand’s interest may also stem from efforts to resolve trade tensions with Washington. Last year, Thailand posted a $45.6 billion trade surplus with the U.S., prompting the Trump administration to impose tariffs as high as 36%. While tariff negotiations were slated to begin last month, they have since been delayed by the U.S. side.

Participation in AKLNG could provide Bangkok with leverage in future talks while simultaneously aligning with its energy security strategy.