Trump warns the world against buying Iranian oil"
US applies pressure amid deadlock in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks
Some analyses say, "The real target of Iran sanctions is China"

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that countries or individuals importing Iranian oil and petrochemical products will face immediate secondary sanctions. This is effectively a pressure tactic aimed at China and stands in contrast to the recent U.S. position promoting de-escalation in trade tensions with China.

Trump Warns of Secondary Sanctions on Buyers of Iranian Oil

On May 1 (local time) - President Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social:
“Warning: Immediately halt all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products.”
He added, “Any country or individual purchasing even a small amount of Iranian oil or petrochemical products will be subject to immediate secondary sanctions and will no longer be able to conduct any form of transaction with the United States.”

This announcement came just after the postponement of the fourth round of nuclear talks with Iran. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi stated on X (formerly Twitter) the same day, “Due to logistical reasons, the U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for the 3rd will be rescheduled,” and added, “A new date will be announced once both sides reach an agreement.” Al-Busaidi, who has mediated the previous three rounds, did not disclose the specific reason for the delay. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed that the postponement was made at the request of the Omani foreign minister.

Secondary Sanctions Signal Pressure—and a Message to China

The U.S. secondary sanctions regime targets not only Iranian entities but also third parties doing business with them, cutting them off from access to the U.S. financial system and market. Trump’s move is widely seen as an effort to pressure Tehran back to the negotiating table. He has previously threatened military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities should talks fail, while Iran has escalated its enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels, effectively stalling negotiations.

Observers note that the sanctions may also be aimed at China, Iran’s largest oil customer. Although Trump did not mention China by name in his post, the U.S. State Department has repeatedly emphasized Beijing’s role. Axios reported that while Trump avoided directly referencing China, the State Department confirmed it is “by far” the largest importer of Iranian oil—estimated at over 1.6 million barrels per day.

China’s “Relabeling” Tactics Under Scrutiny

This is not the first time such measures have been introduced. During Trump’s first term, China appeared to comply publicly with sanctions while secretly importing Iranian oil via “ghost fleets” and third-country intermediaries. More recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised flags about suspiciously high crude imports from Malaysia.

According to a February EIA report, China imported an average of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from Malaysia in 2023—far exceeding Malaysia’s domestic production of 600,000 bpd. The EIA concluded this discrepancy likely stems from “relabeling,” in which Iranian oil is falsely classified as Malaysian to evade sanctions. Combined with imports from sanctioned Russian sources (2.2 million bpd), China may be bringing in 3.6 million bpd of potentially sanctioned oil—roughly 32.4% of its total imports in 2024.

Given China’s status as the world’s top oil importer—averaging 11.32 million bpd in 2023 according to the UK-based Energy Institute—its import behavior has outsized influence on global energy markets. Following China are the EU (8.76 million bpd), the U.S. (6.5 million bpd), India (4.64 million bpd), and Japan (2.52 million bpd).

The geopolitical implications are significant. Should the U.S. follow through on tightening Iranian sanctions, the resultant decline in oil supply could lead to a rebound in global oil prices—undermining recent forecasts from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC, which all anticipated lower prices due to increased supply and weakening demand.

Goldman Sachs estimates that for every 100,000 bpd reduction in Iranian output, global oil prices could rise by $1 per barrel. This poses a particular concern as markets already brace for inflationary pressures driven by Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. If oil prices surge in tandem, it could ignite a global economic slowdown, adding to recession risks already amplified by interest rate volatility.

Laptop Industry Temporarily Halts U.S. Shipments
“Emergency Order Demand Has Dried Up”
20% Tariff Imposed on Laptops Made in China, the World’s Largest Production Base

Just as the global laptop market began to show long-awaited signs of life, it was suddenly plunged into disarray. After years of stagnation, the industry had entered 2025 with optimism—driven by upcoming operating system transitions, heightened demand for artificial intelligence-powered devices, and signs of a broader consumer tech revival. But that momentum is now under threat. A sweeping tariff offensive spearheaded by the Trump administration has delivered a shockwave through global supply chains, forcing laptop manufacturers to slam the brakes on shipments, disrupting demand patterns, and forcing a rethink of yearly growth expectations. The so-called “tariff bomb” has not only rattled the world’s largest electronics makers but also birthed a new consumer phenomenon: the rise of the “tariff refugee.”

Early Buying Spree Drains Momentum

Since late last year, laptop makers had been working overtime to flood the U.S. market with supply. With the Biden-era trade status quo upended and a new wave of protectionist policies taking shape under Trump, manufacturers were bracing for import price shocks. Anticipating that laptops and other tech goods would soon be subject to steep levies, U.S. distributors rushed to build up inventory. In response, companies significantly increased their exports to the U.S., hoping to get ahead of the tariffs.

This front-loaded surge temporarily inflated shipment volumes, but by the second quarter of 2025, that momentum stalled. As inventories swelled but sell-through remained sluggish, distributors pulled back. By early May, major manufacturers began pausing shipments to the United States entirely, unwilling to risk flooding a saturated market.

Acer, one of the leading PC brands, confirmed this shift during its Q1 earnings call, noting that “emergency orders have disappeared,” and that “inventory in the U.S. market is sufficient,” leaving “no risk of short-term shortages.”

Part of the distortion is attributed to American consumers rushing to buy laptops early to avoid expected price hikes. Market intelligence firm IDC reported a sharp increase in PC sales via distribution channels in Q1, totaling $4.07 billion—a 27.8% jump from the previous year. Desktops saw the largest increase at 35.3%, while laptops and workstations followed with 26.9% and 49.3% growth respectively.

This demand spike, however, may have been a mirage. IDC attributed the Q1 boom to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, rather than organic market growth. In early April, the Trump administration introduced new tariffs targeting a wide range of Chinese imports, including many IT products. In some cases, the duties exceeded 100%, despite a 90-day implementation delay. Retailers and consumers alike scrambled to purchase goods before the new costs hit. But now, with inventories high and future pricing uncertain, the market faces a probable demand cliff in the second half of the year. IDC predicts a downturn as inventories deplete and tariffs come into full effect.

The Emergence of ‘Tariff Refugees’

As the trade war escalates, it’s not just companies scrambling for cover—consumers are also adapting in creative ways. One unexpected twist: a growing number of Americans are now traveling to China to shop, intentionally bypassing tariff-inflated prices at home. Chinese state media, quick to seize on the moment, has framed this as a symbolic reversal of trade flows, with headlines like “Americans Come to China for Shopping Tourism to Avoid Trump’s Tariff Bomb” and “Reverse Cross-Border Shopping: Americans Now Flocking to China.”

While such coverage may reflect political posturing, real-world figures back the trend. According to Chinese mobile payment giant Alipay, spending by foreign tourists in China from May 1 to 15 increased 2.5 times compared to the same period last year. More strikingly, spending by American tourists tripled. The data strongly suggests that more Americans are indeed shopping abroad to sidestep rising domestic costs on electronics and consumer goods.

This movement has even led to the emergence of a new term—“tariff refugees.” Drawing comparisons to the “TikTok refugees” who sought alternative platforms during Trump’s social media bans, the phrase refers to Americans now crossing borders in search of better deals. These “refugees” are emblematic of how everyday consumers are caught in the geopolitical crossfire, altering behavior to cope with rapidly changing trade dynamics.

A Market Tipped Toward Contraction

The ramifications of these shifts are already dragging down expectations for the rest of the year. At the start of 2025, analysts had forecasted a bullish outlook for the laptop market. The expiration of Windows 10 support was expected to spur upgrade cycles, while emerging interest in AI-powered laptops promised to ignite new demand. But those hopes are now being revised.

The U.S. alone represents roughly 30% of global laptop demand, making it a critical anchor for manufacturers. If tariffs push retail prices higher—as now seems likely—both consumer and enterprise buyers may delay or cancel purchases. Market confidence is fragile, and hesitation is beginning to replace enthusiasm.

In a bid to protect their margins and reduce exposure, many manufacturers have started relocating production hubs to Southeast Asian nations. Yet this reshoring effort is time-consuming and expensive, and the threat of new tariffs remains unresolved. President Trump has technically exempted laptops, smartphones, and computers from mutual tariffs, but these exemptions are not guaranteed. The U.S. Commerce Department is conducting product-by-product investigations, and Secretary Howard Lutnick has warned that tariffs could still be enforced “within a month or two,” describing current exemptions as “not permanent.”

Reflecting this uncertainty, TrendForce recently slashed its 2025 forecast for global laptop shipment growth from 3.6% to 1.4%. Should the full brunt of the tariffs materialize, the market may shrink by 2.1%, tipping into negative growth for the first time in years.

An industry insider summed up the stakes bluntly: “If laptop tariffs are ultimately limited to 10–20%, the added cost burden might be manageable, and market sentiment could stabilize. But if they go higher, price hikes and weak demand are inevitable.”

Musk: "It was an honor to work together" – Farewell Message Upon Resignation
Tesla Board Urges Musk to "Focus on the Company"
Musk Denies Report That Tesla Board Is Searching for a Successor CEO

Elon Musk, the polarizing tech magnate and head of both the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Tesla, is stepping away from public office amid a cascade of controversies, corporate setbacks, and rising public backlash. Once hailed as President Donald Trump’s closest confidant in government—a “First Buddy” who aggressively spearheaded federal restructuring—Musk now appears to be exiting the political spotlight under the weight of sharp financial losses and widespread reputational damage. His early resignation and growing distance from the Trump administration mark the end of one of the most unconventional alliances in modern U.S. governance.

A Curtain Call in Washington

The first clear sign of Musk’s impending departure came on March 30, when he formally announced his resignation at a White House cabinet meeting. With just a month left in his term, Musk’s farewell was both ceremonial and symbolic. “It has been an honor to work together,” he said, according to U.S. media reports. In a theatrical nod to Trump, he wore a black cap layered with a red one that read “Gulf of America”—a reference to Trump’s controversial executive order issued on Inauguration Day renaming the “Gulf of Mexico.”

During the meeting, Musk praised the administration’s first 100 days, claiming, “An incredible amount has been accomplished—more than any administration in history.” He even suggested it could become “the greatest administration since the founding of the nation.” Despite reports circulating of a recent profanity-laced confrontation with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the room erupted in applause for Musk. President Trump returned the admiration, saying, “Someday, you’ll want to go back home to your car company and your family. You’ve done an amazing job. Just think—$150 billion in federal spending cuts.” Musk responded with a grin, correcting the president: “It’s now $160 billion.” Still, the figure remains far below Musk’s original and highly ambitious goal of $2 trillion in federal savings.

Freefall at Tesla and Public Fury

Behind the scenes, however, the Musk brand was unraveling. During Tesla’s first-quarter earnings call on March 22, Musk signaled a shift in focus, stating that most of DOGE’s core work had concluded and that starting in May, he would “devote much more time to Tesla.” The timing of this announcement was no coincidence. Tesla had just reported a stunning 71% drop in net profit compared to the same quarter the previous year. The dramatic decline set off alarm bells across financial and political circles.

Reports indicate that Musk began spending less time at the White House as Tesla’s troubles deepened. Insiders cite multiple factors behind the company's nosedive—including Musk’s controversial management of DOGE, sweeping layoffs of federal workers, and controversial far-right personnel appointments, some of which were described in the Korean press as “Nazi-style.” These decisions drew accusations of extremism and authoritarianism, which in turn fueled a broad consumer backlash.

Across the United States and Europe, an anti-Musk movement has taken root. Tesla showrooms have been vandalized. Boycotts are being coordinated online. Some Tesla owners, ashamed of their association with Musk, have gone so far as to remove the brand’s emblem from their vehicles. Others now drive with stickers that read, “I Bought This Before Elon Went Crazy.”

In Europe, the damage to Tesla's bottom line has been particularly severe. In France, April sales plummeted 59.4% compared to the previous year, with just 863 units sold—a sharper decline than the 36% recorded in March. Denmark saw a similarly steep drop: sales fell 67.2% in April following a 65.6% decline in March, marking two straight months of heavy losses. These rapid declines in consumer confidence have been exacerbated by growing resentment toward the Trump administration’s “America First” rhetoric, which Musk publicly supported.

Tesla’s market capitalization has collapsed in tandem. Once valued at a staggering $1.5 trillion at the end of last year, the company’s valuation now hovers around $900 billion—a dramatic fall of over 40% in mere months.

Behind Closed Doors: A Succession Plan in Motion

With Musk retreating from Washington and Tesla’s performance in freefall, the company’s board appears to be taking steps to safeguard its future. On March 30, The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla board members had reached out to several executive search firms to begin the process of finding a new CEO. Citing individuals close to the matter, the report revealed that the board had previously advised Musk to spend more time on Tesla operations and to make that decision public.

Though one search firm had reportedly narrowed down a list of potential successors, it remains unclear whether the search is actively ongoing. Also uncertain is whether Musk—who sits on the Tesla board—was informed of the recruitment efforts, or whether they played a role in his March statement about rededicating himself to Tesla.

In response to the WSJ report, Tesla Chairwoman Robyn Denholm issued a public denial, expressing confidence in Musk’s leadership and affirming his ability to “continue executing on our exciting growth plans.” Musk, for his part, dismissed the report as a “fake article” on his social media channels.

Despite these denials, the question of Musk’s future remains open. His abrupt pivot away from Washington, crumbling public approval, and Tesla’s financial collapse have left both investors and political insiders wondering: is this the beginning of Elon Musk’s exit from center stage—or merely the prelude to another reinvention?

U.S. Q1 Economic Growth Rate at -0.3%: 'Negative Growth Shock'
Trump: “Q1–Q2 Negative Growth Has Nothing to Do with Tariffs”
Fed Weighs Interest Rate Cuts Amid Recession Dilemma

As the U.S. economy shows troubling signs of contraction, President Donald Trump is stepping forward to shape the narrative—and shield himself from blame. The first quarter of 2025 closed with a surprise downturn in GDP, and rather than accepting fault, Trump has laid responsibility at the feet of former President Joe Biden. While asserting that his own policies, especially high tariffs, are laying the foundation for future growth, he is attempting to reframe the economic slump as the lingering consequence of Biden-era mismanagement.

But beyond the political rhetoric, the numbers reveal an economy straining under the weight of inflation, shaken consumer confidence, and a contentious trade regime. The Federal Reserve finds itself at a crossroads, facing a moment of economic uncertainty with far-reaching consequences not just for financial markets but for the broader political and global climate.

Trump Defends Tariffs, Blames Biden, and Promotes "Core" GDP

During a high-profile cabinet meeting on April 30, Trump declared, “This quarter belongs to Biden’s economy—and so will the next one. I was inaugurated on January 20, and economic conditions don’t change overnight.” He emphasized that the current slump should not be attributed to his administration. Instead, Trump claimed that “core GDP”—excluding distortive elements like imports, inventory fluctuations, and government spending—rose by 3%. This selective metric, he argued, is a clearer reflection of the economic foundation his administration is building.

On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump reiterated his position, writing: “This is Biden’s stock market, not mine. Tariffs are being implemented, and companies are returning to the U.S. in record numbers. Our economy is about to experience explosive growth.” He insisted that the current difficulties were unrelated to his trade policies, stating, “This has nothing to do with tariffs—it just takes time to clean up the bad numbers left by Biden.”

However, the headline data paints a more sobering picture. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP in the first quarter contracted by 0.3%, a steep drop from 2.4% growth in the previous quarter and significantly below the forecast of 0.4% growth. This marks the largest economic contraction since the first quarter of 2022, when COVID-19-related anxieties weighed heavily on the economy.

One of the primary drags on growth was a sharp increase in imports. Net exports in Q1 suffered their largest quarterly decline on record, falling by 4.83%. This surge in imports, fueled partly by robust consumer demand and supply chain normalization, further widened the trade deficit and sapped momentum from domestic production—highlighting the tension between consumer activity and Trump’s trade protectionism.

Warnings Mount Over Tariff Fallout and Recession Risks

Despite Trump’s optimistic outlook, economists are raising red flags about the potential long-term effects of his aggressive tariff policies. The return of high global tariffs—especially the dramatic 145% rate on Chinese imports—has ignited fears of stagflation and deepened the risk of a recession.

Bloomberg reports that even with adjustments—raising China-specific tariffs while moderating rates for others to 10%—the U.S.’s average tariff level remains a hefty 28.2%. According to BCA Research, even if imports from China were to fall by half due to these punitive measures, the effective U.S. tariff rate would still sit at a historically high 21%, rivaling levels not seen since the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s.

The economic consequences are stark. The Tax Foundation estimates the cumulative impact of the tariffs could shrink U.S. GDP by 0.8% to 1.0%, translating into an average annual cost of roughly $3,443 per American household. Goldman Sachs projects that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—used by the Fed as a primary gauge of inflation—will rise by 0.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, Evercore ISI warns of a worst-case scenario in which GDP could fall by up to 3.4%.

Market prediction platforms mirror these anxieties. Kalshi and Polymarket estimate the chance of a U.S. recession at 63%. JPMorgan has pegged it at 60%, and a range of other economists place the likelihood at around 50%. These projections align with rising consumer concerns. U.S. inflation expectations over the next 12 months have soared to 6.7%, the highest since 1981.

Consumer sentiment has plummeted. According to Bloomberg, public confidence has fallen below levels recorded in June 2022, when inflation reached a peak of 9.2%. Joe Weisenthal, a prominent financial commentator, warned that if confidence drops further, it could plunge to a 73-year low—surpassing even the most pessimistic periods of the post-war era.

Fed Trapped Between Recession Fears and Inflation Pressures

In this fraught landscape, the Federal Reserve finds itself under intense scrutiny ahead of its May 6–7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. For the first time since Trump’s return to office, the Fed must make a monetary policy decision amid intense political and economic pressures.

On the one hand, the negative GDP growth signals that a rate cut might be warranted to stimulate the economy. On the other hand, inflation remains persistent. The Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index rose by 3.6% in Q1, up sharply from 2.4% in the previous quarter—highlighting the inflationary risks still gripping the economy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of this very conundrum weeks earlier. In an April 16 speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said, “Tariffs under the Trump administration, which are higher than anticipated, are likely to raise prices and slow growth.” He cautioned that the Fed might soon face “a difficult decision between prioritizing inflation or supporting growth.”

Yet Powell also made clear the Fed's intention to tread cautiously. “We are in a good position to wait for more clarity before making any policy adjustments,” he said—signaling a continuation of the Fed’s wait-and-see strategy. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 94.8% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%.

Behind the scenes, political considerations may be influencing the Fed’s restraint. Analysts suggest that the central bank might be reluctant to ease monetary policy too soon and appear to legitimize the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs. With the public growing more sensitive to price hikes, the Fed may avoid rate cuts that could be construed as cushioning the administration’s more controversial policies.

Trump Hints at Possible Easing of 145% Tariffs on Chinese Goods
Walmart Resumes Imports from China Following White House Meeting
China Warns Walmart to Stop Pressuring Suppliers for Price Cuts

Walmart, the largest retail chain in the United States, has requested its Chinese suppliers to resume shipments after previously canceling or postponing orders due to Washington’s tariff-heavy trade policy. The move comes after Walmart held a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, prompting speculation in the industry that U.S.-China trade negotiations may soon resume. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has issued a public warning to Walmart, urging the company to refrain from pressuring domestic suppliers to lower prices.

Trump Signals Tariff Rollback on China Amid Walmart Shipment Resumption

April 29 (local time) – As U.S. President Donald Trump hints at reducing tariffs on Chinese goods, signs are emerging of a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations. According to the South China Morning Post, several Chinese exporters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces report receiving instructions from Walmart to resume shipments to the United States—just weeks after a fresh round of tit-for-tat tariffs had been imposed.

A representative of a Ningbo-based office and school supply exporter noted that their U.S. client, Walmart, had communicated plans to restart shipping and that the newly applied tariffs would likely be passed onto the U.S. customer.

Currently, Trump has raised effective tariffs on Chinese imports to approximately 156%, with some items facing duties as high as 245%. In retaliation, China slapped additional tariffs of up to 125% on all U.S. imports. Yet, in recent comments, Trump signaled a potential softening of this stance. During a press conference, he stated that the 145% tariff rate "will substantially come down," and claimed in a TIME interview to have spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump's statement followed a White House meeting on April 21 with executives from major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, and Home Depot. A Target spokesperson described the meeting as “productive” and centered on “the future direction of trade.” Home Depot echoed a similar sentiment, while the White House did not immediately provide a public comment.

Walmart Diversifies Supply Chains in India and Mexico

Walmart, in particular, has been proactive in diversifying its supply chain away from China since the Biden administration. In 2023, India accounted for a quarter of Walmart’s total U.S. imports—up from just 2% in 2018. A company spokesperson previously noted, “Whether it's hurricanes, earthquakes, or raw material shortages, we can't depend on a single supplier or region.”

Walmart began sourcing from India in 2002 and now employs over 100,000 people there, including contract workers. After acquiring a 77% stake in Indian e-commerce firm Flipkart in 2018, Walmart set a goal of importing $10 billion worth of goods annually from India by 2027, up from the current $3 billion.

In Mexico, Walmart is also scaling up. When it needed 50,000 uniforms in 2022, it opted for a local supplier over its traditional Chinese vendors. It has also invested in two AI-powered logistics hubs in Bajío and Tlaxcala, and now sources 83% of its Mexican retail goods domestically through a network of 33,000 SMEs.

Beijing Pressures Walmart Over Supplier Pricing

In a development that may signal rising tensions, the Chinese government recently summoned Walmart executives for talks. According to a report by China’s state broadcaster CCTV, officials raised concerns that Walmart was demanding significant price cuts from Chinese suppliers to offset U.S. tariffs.

CCTV warned that unilateral price reductions could “disrupt the supply chain and harm the interests of both Chinese and American businesses and consumers,” adding that “further actions may go beyond discussion” if Walmart insists on such terms.

The move is widely seen as Beijing’s countermeasure to the U.S. tariff hikes—specifically targeting America’s largest retailer to assert leverage in trade negotiations. China’s semi-official Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Textiles also issued a statement confirming that “multiple member firms had reported U.S. retailers pressuring them to lower prices,” and emphasized that “both Chinese and U.S. businesses are victims in this dispute.”