“Close the Borders and Face a Population Crisis, Open Them and Face Social Conflict”: Europe’s Immigration Policy Dilemma as French Riots Fuel Anti-Immigration Sentiment

Large-scale riots in France prompt calls across Europe for tighter immigration controls
EU population crisis deepens amid low birth rates and aging, highlighting both benefits and drawbacks of immigration
Indiscriminate immigration restrictions could accelerate regional depopulation and weaken the foundations of public services

Anti-immigration sentiment is intensifying across Europe. Some political leaders in the region have linked the large-scale riots and looting that swept across France to failed immigration policies, calling for tough border controls. Experts warn, however, that because immigration has partly offset Europe’s population crisis and labor shortages, a prolonged shift toward reduced immigration could further exacerbate the decline in the economically active population and the depopulation of regions.

Hungary and Poland Signal Anti-Immigration Stance

According to a Euronews report on the 18th (all dates hereafter are local time), Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that day characterized the escalating violent protests across France as an example of the failure of Western Europe’s lenient immigration policies, strongly defending their own policies of sealing their borders. On the 18th, Magyar posted footage of burning buildings in France on social media, writing, “Having witnessed senseless destruction and unjustifiable violence, it should now be clear to everyone why Hungary takes the strictest stance on immigration.” He added, “The overwhelming majority of European countries have woken up and are seeking to break with the lenient policies of the past,” saying, “I hope it is not too late.”

That same evening, Tusk also wrote on social media, without directly mentioning France, “Poland will neither repeat the mistakes of other European countries nor pay the price for them.” He emphasized, “We are firmly defending our borders against illegal immigration, implementing our own asylum policy, and deporting those who violate Polish law.” Then, on the 19th, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who could compete against Tusk ahead of the general election next November, likewise declared, “France is burning, and we must be wise before damage is done.” He stressed that the center-right coalition he leads has a comprehensive solution to make Poland the safest country in the world.

Immigration Also Comes to the Fore in France

Earlier, on the 17th, nationwide protests against rising living costs took place in France. According to the French Interior Ministry, an estimated 550,000 people took to the streets that day, about 2,400 protesters were arrested, and around 1,000 police officers were injured. Shops were looted in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille, while a town hall built in the 19th century was burned in the central city of Limoges. Political symbols tied to immigration issues also appeared at various protest sites. According to local media reports, protesters in the southern city of Toulouse that day placed a yellow vest over the head of an equestrian statue of Joan of Arc, France’s national heroine and Catholic saint, to resemble a hijab, and put a Palestinian flag in her hand. At the Louvre Museum’s pyramid plaza in central Paris, masked protesters climbed a statue of Joan of Arc and affixed stickers bearing political slogans. At Place de la République, a protester was seen waving a Palestinian flag beside a burning bus shelter.

France’s far-right politicians responded by going on the offensive, linking the riots to immigration. On the 18th, Marine Le Pen, a lawmaker from France’s National Rally (RN), said, “We are paying the price for decades of uncontrolled immigration,” directly blaming existing immigration policies for the violence. However, there is no objective evidence that immigrants or people from immigrant families led the unrest, as French police and government authorities have not officially released the proportion of immigrants or second- and third-generation immigrants among those arrested. The French government identified far-left radicals and professional looters who infiltrated peaceful protests as the main perpetrators of the violence.

Immigration Partly Offsets Population Crisis

Population decline and labor shortages underpin the willingness of France and other European countries to accept immigrants from outside the region. According to the third report on demographic change released by the European Commission in July, the EU’s population is projected to rise from its current 450.6 million to a peak of 453.3 million in 2029 before beginning to decline. It is estimated to fall to about 445 million by 2050 and to just 398.8 million by 2100, down 11.7% from 2025. Low birth rates are cited as the biggest cause of population decline. Annual births in the EU fell from 6.8 million in 1964 to about 3.5 million last year—roughly halving over some 60 years.

Population aging is also progressing rapidly. The proportion of EU residents aged 65 and older is projected to rise from about 1 in 5 today to 1 in 3 by 2050. The share aged 80 and older is also expected to more than double, from 6.2% in 2025 to 13.3% in 2070. Immigrants have so far helped partially offset this demographic crisis. Indeed, data from the EU’s statistical office, Eurostat, show that deaths exceeded births in the EU by about 1.35 million last year. Yet population gains from net migration and statistical adjustments reached 2.05 million, resulting in an overall population increase of around 710,000.

Table 1. Sources of Conflict Related to Immigration into Europe

Immigration-Related Social Unrest Also Deepens

Despite this accelerating population decline, calls to restrict immigration are growing across Europe because social conflicts stemming from immigrant arrivals persist. This reflects the failure of social integration policies designed to help immigrants settle into local communities and labor markets to keep pace with the expansion in immigrant admissions. According to Eurostat, 43.8% of non-EU citizens living in the EU were at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2024, while their unemployment rate reached 12.3%.

Housing shortages are also cited as a factor intensifying tensions over immigration. As immigrants concentrate in major cities with insufficient housing supply, residents have increasingly opposed efforts to secure refugee reception facilities and temporary accommodation. In the United Kingdom, anti-immigration protests took place last July outside a hotel housing asylum seekers in Epping, Essex, while similar rallies followed in London. Meanwhile, insufficient increases in staffing and facilities at schools and hospitals are adding to the burden on public services. In the labor market, concerns are also growing that immigrant inflows could worsen wages and employment conditions for existing workers, particularly in low-wage jobs.

Risks of Prolonged Population Decline

The problem is that indiscriminately restricting immigrant inflows could deepen population decline driven by low birth rates and aging, damaging national economies and social systems as a whole. A shrinking working-age population weakens the tax base and makes it harder to maintain public infrastructure such as schools, hospitals, and administrative offices. These risks are particularly pronounced in regions experiencing concentrated population outflows. In Japan, where population decline has persisted for years, a total of 8,850 public schools closed between 2004 and 2023. According to Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Hokkaido recorded the largest number of closures at 859, while closures also continued in other regions, including Iwate Prefecture (331) and Fukushima Prefecture (330). As infrastructure supporting daily life shrinks, residents move to major cities at an accelerating pace. The resulting loss of young people reduces labor supply and consumer demand, dampening business activity and new investment in a vicious cycle.

A similar situation is unfolding in South Korea. According to the results of last year’s Population and Housing Census, released by the Ministry of Data and Statistics in July, 26.38 million people, or 50.9% of the total population of 51.82 million, lived in the Seoul metropolitan area. The metropolitan area’s share of the population has continued to rise since first exceeding 50% in 2019, while 147 of the country’s 229 cities, counties, and districts recorded population declines. Low birth rates, combined with the concentration of young people in the Seoul metropolitan area, have weakened the demographic base of other regions. As a result, school mergers and closures are continuing in these regions, while local universities are also struggling to recruit students and facing financial difficulties.