“Cash-Strapped Anthropic” Poised to Push Ahead With IPO Even at Half Its Expected Valuation, Faces Uphill Battle to Support Shares After Listing

Anthropic pushes ahead with listing amid swing to loss and infrastructure spending burden
Urgent need for funds could drive valuation down to half initial expectations
Weak profitability after listing could chill AI investment sentiment

Artificial intelligence (AI) company Anthropic is poised to push ahead with a listing this month even if it means accepting a lower valuation. With massive infrastructure spending commitments and its operating results having swung to a loss, the company appears to have an urgent need to raise funds through an IPO. Investors aware of its need for cash are demanding a lower price, and some market forecasts suggest its IPO valuation could fall to USD 1 trillion, half the level initially anticipated. But concerns remain that even a lower-priced listing would struggle to support the shares if service prices keep falling and profitability remains weak. If poor share performance disrupts Anthropic’s additional fundraising and investment spending, it could also undermine earnings expectations for computing resource suppliers, weighing on investment sentiment across the AI industry.

USD 1.5 Trillion Valuation Outlook Under Pressure

According to the Financial Times (FT) on the 9th (all dates hereafter are local time), artificial intelligence (AI) company Anthropic plans to complete its initial public offering (IPO) before the 26th despite the recent plunge in technology stocks. Multiple investors cited an expected valuation of USD 1.25 trillion to USD 1.75 trillion, with discussions of raising USD 80 billion to USD 100 billion on that basis. The company is pursuing a listing at a valuation below the USD 2 trillion initially anticipated by some investors. Major investors said CEO Dario Amodei is strongly committed to keeping the listing on schedule, even at a lower valuation.

Investors considering participating in the offering are also stepping up demands for a lower price. According to details of investor discussions reported by Reuters on the 5th, some institutions viewed even USD 1.5 trillion as the upper end of an acceptable valuation. In particular, some argued that, given Anthropic’s losses and massive infrastructure investment commitments, the company’s need for funding meant it should lower the offering price further. Anthropic had initially planned to begin its investor roadshow in the week containing the 9th of this month and set the offering price the following week. After the plunge in technology stocks, however, potential investors even raised the possibility of a delay.

Pressure for a Lower Valuation Intensifies After Swing to Loss

Anthropic does indeed face enormous future payments for computing and infrastructure. An amended securities filing released on the 2nd listed total AI infrastructure spending commitments of USD 895.4 billion, roughly half of which is scheduled to be spent by the end of 2030. Payments due in the 12 months following the end of September this year alone amount to USD 69.8 billion. An additional USD 5 billion in computing costs in the third quarter added to the pressure on profitability. Revenue for the same period rose 47% from the previous quarter to USD 16.96 billion, but operating results swung from a USD 974 million profit in the second quarter to a USD 567 million loss in the third. Anthropic has also committed to spending at least USD 518 billion on cloud services, computing and infrastructure over the next 10 years.

As investment costs and profitability concerns mount, some market forecasts have lowered Anthropic’s potential IPO valuation to USD 1 trillion. Three major investors planning to participate in the IPO said a further valuation adjustment was needed after the plunge in technology stocks, with one proposing a level of USD 1 trillion. That is half the USD 2 trillion initially discussed, effectively calling for a 50% valuation cut during pre-listing negotiations. With the offering price still undecided, institutional investors preparing to commit actual funds are demanding increasingly steep discounts.

The high revenue multiple built into initial expectations also underlies the valuation debate. According to market research firm PitchBook, Anthropic’s USD 2 trillion valuation represents 31 times its annualized revenue of USD 65 billion as of the end of July. Annualized revenue here is calculated by extrapolating the latest month’s revenue over 12 months, assuming that revenue level is maintained throughout the year. Moreover, revenue does not deduct computing, personnel or other costs, meaning the 31-times valuation also reflects expectations of improved future profit margins.

Table 1. Anthropic’s Infrastructure Spending Commitments and Quarterly Results

Fragile Revenue Stability

Listing discussions have even drawn on revenue projections for 2028 to support the high valuation. According to Reuters’ analysis of valuation discussions in August, Anthropic projected 2028 revenue of USD 190 billion to USD 200 billion, and investment banks and investors considered applying revenue multiples to those forecasts. Assuming revenue of USD 200 billion, a USD 2 trillion valuation works out to 10 times revenue. However, that calculation assumes substantial future revenue growth and a decline in computing and personnel costs as a share of revenue as the business scales up. At the time, David Merkel, head of investment firm Aleph Investments, questioned whether a USD 2 trillion valuation could be sustained after the listing.

Customer contract terms are also seen as a risk to the realization of those revenue projections. According to confidential listing documents reviewed by Bloomberg in September, two customers accounted for 24% of Anthropic’s revenue last year, each contributing 12% of the total. In particular, Anthropic disclosed the risk that many of its major customers could reduce or halt spending because they are not locked into long-term contracts. Last year, revenue from charges based on Claude usage totaled USD 3.8 billion, while subscription revenue came to USD 789 million. Anthropic expects usage-based revenue to continue accounting for most of its total revenue, meaning major customers’ actual service usage directly affects its revenue trajectory.

Business Uncertainty Continues to Grow

Conditions for maintaining the company’s valuation after listing are also challenging. Executives at major AI companies, including Anthropic and OpenAI, have recently been reviewing contingency scenarios involving a deterioration in public opinion and political responses following a major incident. Cyberattacks that cripple financial services, internet access, and electricity and water supplies are a key focus, and some industry insiders expect a major incident within the next 6–12 months. OpenAI described the exercises as preparation for various scenarios, while Anthropic declined to comment. Although it is difficult to predict when an incident might occur, actual damage that prompts development restrictions and tighter regulation would also weigh on revenue forecasts premised on new product launches and service expansion.

The fact that falling prices limit revenue growth even as service usage rises is also fueling concerns about overvaluation. According to data compiled by financial technology company Ramp, Anthropic’s average price per token has fallen 68% since the beginning of last year. Tokens are the basic units of text processed by AI, meaning revenue earned from providing the same volume of service has declined by that amount. Anthropic’s token usage rose 90% between the first week of July and the final week of September, but customer spending increased only 19%. Falling prices thus offset much of the revenue benefit from increased usage. Supporting a high valuation requires customer usage to keep surging, but continued price cuts also increase the volume of service the company must supply to sustain its growth.

Concerns Over Selling Pressure Immediately After Listing

Even if Anthropic secures investors during the offering, the risk of selling pressure immediately after listing remains. In a Bloomberg interview on the 6th, Max Kettner, HSBC’s chief multi-asset strategist, even raised the possibility of valuing Anthropic below USD 1 trillion, emphasizing how its shares would trade in the secondary market after listing. Citing SpaceX’s sharp initial rally followed by a decline, he warned against a repeat of that pattern amid subdued investor sentiment. His point was that even with a lower offering price, once initial buying momentum is exhausted, the company will again face the market’s assessment of its performance and business risks. The more heavily a listing price reflects expectations of future growth, the greater the downward pressure on shares if results fall short. Completing the listing alone is therefore unlikely to resolve concerns about overvaluation.

Another concern is that weak performance in Anthropic’s shares could further dampen investment sentiment across the AI industry. Amazon and Google are major investors in Anthropic while also supplying computing resources and selling Claude, linking Anthropic’s growth prospects to both the value of their equity stakes and related revenue. If a post-listing share-price decline worsens its ability to raise additional funds and leads it to scale back computing resource purchases, suppliers’ projected revenue would also face downward pressure. Moreover, some businesses in the supply chain rely on external borrowing. In its amended securities filing, Anthropic explicitly warned that if some computing and infrastructure partners lose access to financing or face higher costs, the supply of contracted resources could be delayed or reduced, or prices could be renegotiated. This leaves concerns about a vicious cycle in which financing instability leads to supply disruptions that, in turn, constrain Anthropic’s revenue growth.