Iran seeks favorable terms for ending the war by pressuring Trump ahead of elections
US and Israel respond by considering renewed attacks on nuclear facilities
Aim extends beyond blocking nuclear rebuilding to weakening Iranian leadership’s power base 

With the US midterm elections approaching, Iran’s maritime attacks and the US oil blockade are intensifying the struggle over terms for ending the war. Iran aims to disrupt crude supplies, increasing political pressure on the Trump administration to secure an end to the blockade and sanctions relief. But the United States is maintaining pressure, considering renewed attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities with Israel. The apparent calculation is to weaken Iran’s bargaining power by blocking its path to rebuilding its nuclear capabilities, while also undermining its leadership’s postwar power base.

Iran concentrates attacks on vessels transferring crude at sea

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on the 14th (all dates hereafter are local time), at least 24 vessels were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz between the 28th of last month and the 11th of this month. This was the highest total for any two-week period since the war broke out in late February this year, with 6 vessels attacked on the 11th alone. Attack locations were also widely dispersed, from waters near Qeshm Island, where the strait’s shipping channel narrows, to waters off Qatar roughly 500 km away. International Maritime Organization (IMO) figures also show a series of attacks this month, primarily on crude oil tankers, threatening the safety of merchant vessels navigating the strait and surrounding waters.

Iran is focusing its attacks on vessels conducting ship-to-ship transfers to transport crude while evading the blockade. Gulf oil producers have continued exports by sending small tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and then transferring their crude to larger tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman. Under this arrangement, vessels transiting the strait and those carrying crude to its final buyers operate on separate legs of the journey. The United States has also supported crude shipments leaving the strait, and these transfers have played an important role in restoring Gulf export volumes. In response, Iranian forces reportedly attacked at least 5 small vessels attempting ship-to-ship transfers every night. The move appears intended to block even the transfer of crude that has cleared the strait onto larger tankers.

Iran is also developing tactics to better locate merchant vessels. According to US military officials, after US attacks destroyed much of its radar capability, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps began deploying unarmed observers aboard small vessels to locate maritime targets. They reportedly identify the positions of merchant vessels and US Navy ships and relay them to the Revolutionary Guards. Last week, the US military determined that such activities were taking place aboard a traditional wooden dhow, ordered those aboard to disembark, and destroyed the vessel. Iranian officials said the recent decision to adjust attack methods and frequency was made at the leadership level and was also intended to thwart efforts by the United States and its allies to stabilize oil prices.

Targeting energy supply chains ahead of US elections

Iran’s tightening grip on the strait is intended to push up international oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections on the 3rd of next month. The calculation is to pressure the Trump administration and the Republican Party by fueling discontent among voters weary of soaring diesel and gasoline prices. Iranian government officials told Reuters, “The goal of Iran’s new strategy is to influence the US election results. It will frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to lower international oil prices.” The change in attack tactics was reportedly decided by Iran’s top leadership and coordinated among its power institutions. Iran’s demands in negotiations have been for the US military to lift its blockade of Iranian ports and for oil sanctions to be eased. The intensified attacks also appear intended to use control over the strait to secure those demands.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels are also supporting Iran’s strategy by launching air attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. On the 13th, the Houthis fired a missile at the headquarters of state-owned oil company Aramco in Dhahran, eastern Saudi Arabia, roughly 1,100 km from the Yemeni border. The Saudi-led coalition said debris from an intercepted missile fell in nearby residential areas, while Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said a limited fire broke out at an Aramco administrative building. Before the attack, the Houthis also warned employees and civilians near Saudi oil facilities to evacuate. After the Saudi-led coalition earlier struck oil facilities in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, the Houthis had threatened retaliation, naming Aramco’s headquarters and oil refining facilities in Riyadh among potential targets. On the 14th, the day after the attack, the Houthis also announced plans for further strikes on Saudi airports and oil facilities. At the time, the Houthis claimed to have attacked Aramco facilities in Dhahran, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, and oil refining facilities with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.

Table 1. US and Israeli moves to prevent the restoration of Iran’s nuclear capabilities

US and Israel consider further strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities

As Iran and the Houthis exert pressure by disrupting energy supply chains, the United States and Israel have reportedly considered resuming military operations against Iran. US online news outlet Axios reported on the 13th that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed a joint military operation to strike Iran’s nuclear and military facilities during a phone call last week. Netanyahu reportedly conveyed to Trump the assessment of Israeli intelligence agencies that Iran was making troubling moves to rebuild its nuclear program. One US official said, “Netanyahu seems to want to attack Iran again,” adding that Trump told Netanyahu, in effect, to “be ready.”

At the heart of discussions about additional strikes is concern that Iran could use underground facilities to restore its nuclear program. The underground complex at Pickaxe Mountain, roughly 2 km south of the Natanz nuclear facility, is considered a key surveillance target. According to an analysis of satellite imagery released last month by the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), road activity in the area this year was the highest recorded during the observation period. Reinforcement of tunnel entrances, road paving, and removal of excavated earth were detected, raising the possibility that construction was underway inside the underground complex. Israeli intelligence agencies reportedly passed information to the United States indicating that Iran had moved centrifuges and related components to the site.

Preparing live-fire tests for attacks on Iranian underground nuclear facilities

Israel, which has been wary of Iran restoring its nuclear capabilities, maintains that pressure must continue until the leadership abandons its nuclear program. In a July 26 interview with Fox News, Netanyahu claimed that previous airstrikes had delayed Iran’s nuclear development by years, but warned that destroyed facilities and capabilities could be rebuilt. He then set the collapse of the Iranian regime, or its weakening to the point where it must halt its nuclear program, as conditions for ending the war. The remarks are interpreted as signaling an intention to repeatedly thwart the rebuilding of nuclear facilities and undermine the Iranian leadership’s plans to maintain its postwar influence by relying on restored nuclear capabilities. On the 5th of this month, Netanyahu continued to pressure the regime itself, claiming that it was fighting for survival in its weakest state since its founding.

The United States has also been making military preparations for attacks on underground facilities to neutralize the foundations of Iran’s nuclear development. This reflects an assessment that the Pickaxe Mountain facility lies beneath hard granite, making it difficult to inflict sufficient damage even with existing large bunker-buster bombs. US Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) contract documents released last month included instructions issued in February this year to urgently repair a specialized underground test facility at White Sands, New Mexico, and prepare live-fire tests. Sources familiar with the matter said the test plan was connected to work on developing methods for attacking Iran’s underground facilities. The White Sands test facility is also built within granite, allowing it to be used to assess weapons’ effectiveness against underground targets.

US likely to maintain pressure aimed at draining Iran’s war funds

The US administration assesses that Iran’s ability to wage war will continue to diminish as the United States applies military pressure while also cutting off its access to funding through crude exports. On the 8th, the US Treasury Department designated additional sanctions targets, including 17 vessels involved in transporting Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals. A Treasury official said at the time that only about 20 million barrels of Iranian crude remained aboard vessels outside the blockade, adding that the naval blockade and sanctions had also halted the loading and unloading of Iranian crude. The stated goal of the sanctions was to cut off funding for war costs, missile production, and Revolutionary Guard activities. This means that even if Iran increases the burden on its adversaries through maritime attacks, its capacity to sustain a prolonged war could continue to erode unless it restores its export revenues and military procurement.

Based on this assessment, support is growing within the US administration for maintaining economic pressure until Iran accepts the terms of negotiations. Many of President Trump’s advisers reportedly favor waiting longer to assess the effects of sanctions and the blockade rather than immediately resuming large-scale airstrikes. One US official explained that the administration intends to maintain its current approach because it believes economic pressure is gradually taking effect. On the 8th, Trump also made clear that the blockade of Iran would remain fully in place. Given this stance, the United States may maintain the blockade even after the midterm elections and continue pressuring Iran to accept negotiating terms.