"An immediate counterattack if attacked": NATO warns of a tough response to Russian military provocations
Mounting Russian military pressure raises concerns over possible armed clashes in Kaliningrad and the three Baltic states
Europe accelerates rearmament, from nuclear deterrence drills to higher defense spending and joint weapons procurement

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is stepping up its efforts to counter Russia. As Russian military provocations, including sabotage and airspace violations, cause growing concern across Europe, vigilance within NATO is also intensifying. In particular, recent concerns over the possibility of a limited Russian attack and military tensions surrounding Kaliningrad and the Baltic region are accelerating Europe's efforts to strengthen its regional military response capabilities.

NATO Signals Willingness to Confront Russia Head-On

According to Reuters and Polish broadcaster TVP on the 12th (all dates hereafter are local time), NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich told a security forum in Warsaw, Poland, that day: "If someone is foolish enough to attack us, we will fight," adding, "We will stop that attack and deny them the ability to achieve whatever their objectives are." He added that this would involve large-scale retaliation if necessary, saying, "That includes not only the attacking forces, but everything that supports, sustains and controls those forces."

Grynkewich also stressed, "I do not assess that conflict is imminent or inevitable," adding, "Effective deterrence requires military preparedness even for potential threats." He said, "If attacked, we are ready to fight tonight," but argued that "a strategy focused on stopping an attack rather than inflicting a broad strategic defeat can prevent a wider conflict and hold the other side accountable." Regarding suspected Russian sabotage in Europe, he noted, "It is important for allies to continue consulting, consider how to respond, and communicate clearly and concisely to Russia where our red lines are."

Russia's Military Provocations

These public remarks by a NATO official come amid heightened vigilance in Europe over the possibility of Russian sabotage and military provocations. According to the Associated Press, Western authorities have attributed at least 211 acts of sabotage and hostile activity to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. For example, on the 29th of last month, the Estonian government announced that a fire at a facility belonging to domestic defense company Milrem Robotics in August this year was an act of arson ordered by Russian security agencies. Milrem Robotics supplies unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to Ukraine.

Attempted attacks targeting Ukraine's military logistics network have also been detected in Germany. According to Reuters, the German government officially named Russia as being behind an explosives-laden drone discovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport in August. The drone, found by airport staff, was equipped with explosives and a detonator, and its intended target was determined to have been a Ukrainian cargo aircraft parked at the airport. A sabotage plot targeting defense facilities has also surfaced in the United Kingdom. Last month, British prosecutors charged Joshua Cammidge, a 31-year-old British national, with plotting attacks on domestic drone manufacturing facilities while in contact with Russia. Prosecutors said the defendant provided information on 4 drone manufacturing facilities in Swindon, west of London, while communicating with an individual suspected of being affiliated with an organization controlled by Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU.

Prospect of a Limited Military Attack Raised

Direct military activity by Russian forces is also fueling security concerns in Europe. For example, in September last year, Polish forces and NATO assets mounted an emergency response to approximately 20 Russian drones that entered Polish airspace. Poland scrambled F-16 fighter jets, while Dutch F-35 fighters, an Italian airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft and NATO aerial refueling aircraft also participated in the operation, shooting down some of the drones. Later that same month, 3 Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace. The Estonian government requested security consultations among allies under Article 4 of NATO's founding treaty, and NATO condemned Russia's airspace violations, warning that it would use the necessary military and nonmilitary means to respond to further threats. Since then, sightings of unidentified drones have repeatedly disrupted civilian airport operations across Europe.

Against this backdrop, the prospect that Russia could launch a limited military attack on NATO members is gaining traction within the region. On the 17th of last month, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, citing intelligence assessments, warned that Russia was planning drone and missile attacks against European countries supporting Ukraine and could disguise them as accidents to weaken NATO members' willingness to invoke collective defense measures. Danish intelligence authorities also assessed that month that Russia was highly likely to expand hybrid operations combining sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation to put pressure on Western countries.

Table 1. Russian Security Threats in Europe

Potential Conflict Zones on Alert

If a military clash between Russia and NATO materializes, Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad is expected to emerge as a major conflict zone. Kaliningrad is a strategic military location situated between NATO members Poland and Lithuania, and it hosts the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet as well as a concentration of missile and air defense capabilities. Indeed, military warnings from both sides over Kaliningrad are growing increasingly stark. In an interview with Swiss daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) in May, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys argued that "NATO must demonstrate that it can penetrate the Russian military defense network established in Kaliningrad." Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that "Russia possesses all the means to destroy any forces attempting to attack Kaliningrad." A diplomatic document Russia delivered to NATO last month also stated that Russia was "prepared to use all military means, including nuclear weapons, if the West attempts to isolate Kaliningrad from mainland Russia."

Concern over the possibility of military clashes is also deepening in Latvia, which shares a border with Russia. In May, responding to claims by Russian intelligence agencies that Ukraine had deployed drone operators on Latvian territory, Putin warned that "any location posing a direct military threat to Russia can become a legitimate target." Later, in July, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs expressed concern, saying, "Intelligence agencies of NATO members, including Lithuania and Latvia, have detected Russian sabotage attempts," and that "if Russia fails to achieve results on the Ukrainian front, it could test NATO's commitment to collective defense through sabotage and hybrid attacks."

Europe Steps Up Rearmament

As military threats from Russia intensify, Europe is accelerating efforts to strengthen its regional defense posture. According to Reuters, NATO will begin its annual nuclear deterrence exercise, Steadfast Noon, in Italy on the 13th. The exercise will involve 17 member states and will review nuclear weapons operating procedures and command-and-control systems among allies without using actual nuclear weapons. A broader push to increase defense spending is also evident. At the Hague summit last year, NATO members agreed to raise defense- and security-related spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. Specifically, they plan to allocate at least 3.5% of GDP to core defense needs, including personnel, weapons and military facilities, and up to 1.5% to protecting critical infrastructure, cybersecurity and strengthening the defense industrial base.

Efforts to expand joint European defense capabilities are also continuing. On the 28th of last month, the Council of the EU formally approved joint European defense projects in 5 areas: drones and counter-drone systems, maritime and undersea defense, space security, integrated air and missile defense, and defense of the eastern front. Proposed by the European Commission in July, these projects became eligible for financial support through the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) following the approval. Earlier, in March, the Commission finalized an EDIP implementation plan totaling EUR 1.5 billion (approximately USD 1.73 billion), earmarking EUR 325 million (approximately USD 375 million) to support the launch and implementation of joint European defense projects.