"Seven-Day Plan Rejected, Dialogue Remains Open": U.S.–Iran Talks Stall as Midterm Pressures and Nuclear Differences Loom

Trump rejects Iran’s “seven-day plan”; Tehran awaits a definitive response
Economic and military tensions persist, though further talks remain possible
Prolonged war erodes U.S. public support, raising alarms for Republicans ahead of midterms

U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for ending the war. Tehran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifted its maritime blockade and eased sanctions on Iranian oil, among other conditions. Trump turned down the proposal in the belief that the United States holds the advantage both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table. Neither side has closed the door to dialogue, however: Qatar continues to mediate, and Trump said he expects further talks with Iran this week. Washington’s willingness to keep negotiations open appears to reflect the mounting political cost of the war ahead of the midterm elections.

Iran’s Proposed Deal Stalls

According to a review of international media reports on the 26th (all dates local time), Trump told reporters at the White House in Washington that day, “I rejected Iran’s [seven-day plan] proposal,” adding, “They are losing so badly that they want a deal to open the strait immediately.” He went on to claim that “a tremendous amount of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz last night, and 29 ships came out,” and that “the United States already has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.” His remarks underscored his view that Washington has no reason to accept Iran’s terms while it holds the battlefield advantage.

Iran’s seven-day plan reportedly called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and negotiations to end the war to resume within seven days if the United States met conditions including lifting its maritime blockade of Iran, releasing frozen funds and easing sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on the 24th that Tehran had conveyed the proposal to Washington through Qatar, which is acting as a mediator, and that “the choice is America’s.” After Trump announced his rejection, Araghchi said, “We have seen the U.S. president’s initial reaction,” but added that Iran was “waiting for a definitive position to be conveyed through the mediators.” He also stressed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz depended on acceptance of Iran’s previously stated conditions and that “only a negotiated solution will end this deadlock.” According to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, Araghchi plans to remain in the United States, where he is attending the General Assembly, until the 30th.

Washington Maintains Pressure on Iran

Some international media outlets question whether Washington will engage actively in negotiations. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently reported that “the Trump administration believes the maritime blockade and economic sanctions have substantially constrained Iran’s foreign trade and logistics networks.” The United States has blockaded merchant vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports since April. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said that, as of the 25th, it had diverted 122 merchant vessels to ensure compliance with the blockade. Washington is thereby pressuring both Iranian oil shipments and general cargo trade. Iran’s efforts to divert freight overland have also encountered high transport costs and bottlenecks at border crossings. In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 36 entities, including airlines and foreign intermediaries, on the 8th over allegations that they supported Iran’s aviation industry. On the 14th, it also added Russia’s VTB Bank to its sanctions list for allegedly helping Iran evade restrictions.

Military tensions between the two countries also appear to be rising again. According to the WSJ, senior White House advisers have privately considered the possibility that the confrontation with Iran could last until the end of Trump’s term. Although Trump has publicly suggested that the war could end after the midterm elections, administration officials have not ruled out a renewed escalation of military pressure if they fail to secure concessions from Tehran. Iran has likewise signaled a hard-line response. On the 27th, Ali Mohammadi, deputy political chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, warned, “If the United States starts a new war against Iran, we will attack even U.S. warships and destroyers in the Indian Ocean.” He added, “If the United States wants to claim it controls the Strait of Hormuz, let it send its warships directly near the strait.” Iranian military spokespeople also said they would deploy new military technologies in response to further U.S. intervention.

Further Talks Remain Possible

Further negotiations nevertheless remain possible. Citing U.S. officials and Middle Eastern sources, Axios reported on the 27th that Qatar had continued its shuttle diplomacy, relaying compromise proposals to Washington and Tehran even after Iran’s seven-day plan failed. Trump also told Axios in a telephone interview, “I expect further meetings with Iran this week,” adding, “They want a deal, but the deal they want is not the deal I want.” Of Iran’s proposal, he said it contained terms he “might have agreed to a year ago,” arguing that “they overplayed their hand.”

Washington’s decision to keep its channel to Tehran open appears to reflect the political pressure facing the Trump administration and the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections. An Axios analysis published on the 26th put opposition to Trump’s job performance at 60.4% on average across national polls—the highest level across both his first and second terms. Sentiment has also deteriorated among Republican supporters. In a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted from the 17th to the 20th, the share of Republicans who approved of Trump’s economic policies fell to 56% from 80% in January. The share who rated his handling of the cost of living positively dropped to 44% from 70%.

Table 1. Political Pressures on Trump and Republicans Ahead of the Midterm Elections

Republican Support Trends Downward

The prolonged war has been a major driver of declining support. In a national survey of registered voters released by Quinnipiac University on the 10th, 29% approved of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, while 65% disapproved. His economic policies received a positive rating from 32% and a negative rating from 65%. The worsening public mood could threaten Republican control of Congress. According to the U.S. Senate’s official count, Republicans currently hold 53 seats, Democrats 45 and independents who caucus with Democrats two. Losing even a small number of seats in this Senate election could therefore cost Republicans their majority.

Republicans face growing pressure in the House as well. On the 25th, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for 15 House districts in a direction favorable to Democrats. Democrats are now favored in 208 districts and Republicans in 205, while the remaining 22 are classified as toss-ups. Republicans currently hold 17 of those competitive seats and Democrats hold five. Cook found that negative assessments of Trump’s economic policies are becoming an obstacle for Republican candidates.

Nuclear Differences Remain Unresolved

If Washington returns to the negotiating table in response to these political risks, Iran’s nuclear program is likely to be the principal point of contention. According to the WSJ, the Trump administration’s central aim is to limit Iran’s ability to produce or reacquire highly enriched uranium and to address the stockpile it already holds. Washington does not, however, seek a blanket prohibition on a civilian nuclear program. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said on NBC on the 27th that Iran could retain a civilian nuclear program if it complied with its obligations under international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He added that, in earlier negotiations, the United States had even proposed supplying Iran directly with uranium for power generation. Under that approach, Iran would obtain the nuclear fuel it needs from abroad, removing the need to enrich uranium to high levels domestically. Waltz said Washington could also consider an arrangement under which Iran surrendered its existing highly enriched uranium.

Iran, by contrast, describes domestic uranium enrichment as a right guaranteed by the NPT and maintains that its enriched uranium is used for peaceful purposes, including medicine. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), however, expressed concern on the 10th about Iran’s compliance with its NPT safeguards obligations, reflecting a contrary assessment. Several other major nuclear issues also remain unsettled. One diplomatic expert said, “There is still no agreement on core questions, including whether enriched uranium stockpiles will be transferred abroad, the scope of any future right to enrich uranium domestically, and the extent of the IAEA’s inspection authority and access.” The expert added, “Even if U.S.–Iran talks resume, the dispute will extend well beyond whether Iran should be prohibited from possessing nuclear weapons.”