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The Economy Ed…

Japan wage growth marks a clear break from decades of stagnation Large firms can raise pay more easily than smaller businesses Policy must protect workers and viable firms during the transition Japan has been in search of a stab

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Keith Lee

Warsh’s first FOMC resisted the expected political script Fed independence is proven through decisions, not appointments The real test comes when policy and politics collide A 12-0 vote can say more than many months o

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The Economy Ed…

Europe built trade through linked treaties Middle powers can adapt that model Deeper access should depend on verified compliance Almost 900 trade agreements connected the nations of Europe from 1815 to 1919.

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Aoife Brennan

Oil prices erase gains sparked by the outbreak of the Iran war, falling back to pre-conflict levels Inflation risks expected to ease gradually, with the U.S.

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The Economy Ed…

Trade policy uncertainty deters FDI more than predictable barriers Lower-income and highly integrated economies face the largest losses Stable rules have become essential investment infrastructure An increase in

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The Economy Ed…

Tariffs create openings, not automatic winners Europe gains only while it remains outside the tariff wall Productive capacity determines who captures diverted trade The most striking number from the US–China tariff war is not

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The Economy Ed…

Small tariffs can permanently redirect trade Large retaliation can damage domestic supply chains Europe must protect capacity without protecting failure A tariff imposed in June 2018 slashed the value of target

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Oliver Griffin

China officially opens offshore wind-powered underwater data center off Shanghai coast Other countries including South Korea and the United States also pursue subsea AI infrastructure projects Private-sector companies turn their attention to offshore data centers as early-stage competition intensifies

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Siobhán Delaney

Reconfiguration of the Fed’s communications framework begins with scaling back forward guidance and the dot plot Concerns grow that reduced policy predictability could widen Treasury market risk premiums Momentum builds toward a return to a Greenspan-style discretionary monetary policy regime

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The Economy Ed…

Reserve quality matters more than headline size Borrowed reserves can hide future repayment risks Governments should disclose how reserves are financed The household comparison makes the logic airtight.

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Siobhán Delaney

Hawkish Rate Hold at First FOMC Meeting Under New Chair Comprehensive Review of Communication, Balance Sheet, and Inflation Framework Fed Takes a Scalpel to Its Policy Framework, Shifting Focus From Forecasts to Real-Time Conditions

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Oliver Griffin

Central Banks Reduce Dollar Exposure, Increase Gold Holdings China Accelerates Yuan Internationalization Amid Global Financial Market Turbulence Euro's Position Weakens as Cracks Emerge in Bretton Woods 2.0 Central banks around th

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Tyler Hansbrough

China’s AI industry expands adoption of domestically produced semiconductors from companies such as Huawei Self-sufficiency accelerates across materials sectors including semiconductor wafers and silicon-28 As South Korea and Taiwan emerge as major beneficiaries of the AI-driven race for technological supremacy, questions mount over China’s future position

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Matthew Reuter

Oil Price Surge and Stronger Dollar Triggered by Iran War Simultaneous Pressure Across Asian Foreign Exchange Markets Limited Currency Defense Despite Rate Hikes and Tax Incentives The surge in oil prices and strengthening U.S.

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Tyler Hansbrough

"Pause Rather Than Hike" Narrative Gains Momentum Following U.S.-Iran Peace MOU Bond Markets and Crude Prices React Immediately, Though Timing of Disinflation Remains Uncertain Japan Struggles Under Inflation and Yen Weakness as Even a 1% Policy Rate May Offer Limited Relief

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Siobhán Delaney

Retail sales decline in May for the first time since December 2022 Industrial output remains resilient, but domestic demand weakness persists Property downturn remains the root cause, making prolonged deflation increasingly likely

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The Economy Ed…

The Gulf oil shock is no longer only an energy-price shock Low-income workers feel the first damage through earnings and job-finding losses Gulf economies now face a deeper test of fiscal strength, investor trust, and capital stability

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The Economy Ed…

Japan’s weak yen is making economic security more expensive Cheap Chinese imports now help Japan contain inflation Only productivity growth can weaken the yen dependency trap This yen story has a number that explain

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Anne-Marie Nicholson

BOJ Moves Back Toward Tightening, Highest Interest Rate in 31 Years Within Reach Expectations for Sustained U.S.-Japan Rate Differential Drive Record Yen Short Positions Stabilizing Oil Prices Amid Hopes for an End to the War Add Uncertainty to Tightening Path

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The Economy Ed…

Unemployment alone can hide a weak labour market Payrolls, participation and hours reveal the real bottleneck Policy must treat labour supply as a moving target Back in June 2022, the U.S.

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