“Sharing Security Burdens, Expanding Defense Production”: U.S. Steps Up Middle East Arms Sales, Strengthening Capacity for a Protracted War Against Iran

U.S. continues large-scale arms exports to the Middle East since the outbreak of the Iran war
Expanded military roles for Middle Eastern partners ease Washington’s regional security burden
Stronger U.S. defense production capacity also bolsters the ability to sustain the war

The United States is expanding arms sales to Middle Eastern countries. As the prolonged war with Iran heightens regional insecurity, Washington is supplying a succession of U.S.-made air defense, missile and precision-strike systems to partners including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Qatar. Experts expect these transactions to shift security costs and operational burdens onto partner countries while strengthening the production base of the U.S. defense industry.

Major FMS Packages Approved for the Middle East

According to Türkiye’s state-run Anadolu Agency on October 5, with all dates hereafter given in local time, the U.S. State Department recently granted preliminary approval for Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Egypt, Kuwait and the UAE worth a combined $2.27 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of the proposed sales, with their final value to be determined following congressional review and contract negotiations. The largest of the three packages is for the UAE. Washington approved the proposed sale of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) guidance sections and related equipment to the UAE for up to $1.041 billion. The UAE requested up to 10,000 guidance sections, with the package comprising △APKWS II guidance sections for air-to-air and air-to-ground applications △Mk-152 high-explosive warheads △Mk66 rocket motors △proximity fuzes △training warheads.

Egypt is expected to acquire Javelin anti-tank missile systems worth up to $832 million. The Egyptian government requested △up to 2,020 FGM-148F Javelin missiles △up to 200 Lightweight Command Launch Units (LWCLUs) △training equipment △missile simulators △spare parts △technical assistance and logistics support services. Kuwait’s package focuses on sustaining the operational capability of its existing Patriot air defense systems rather than procuring large quantities of new missiles. The sale approved by the State Department is valued at up to $400 million and includes △Patriot missile repair-and-return services and transportation △repair parts △test and support equipment △maintenance and technical assistance.

U.S. Arms Sales Continue to Expand

The United States has steadily expanded arms sales to Middle Eastern countries since the outbreak of the Iran war. A prominent example was its preliminary approval in March of arms sales to the UAE totaling $8.46 billion. The packages covered △a Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) and equipment for integration with the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system △the Fixed Site-Low, Slow, Small Unmanned Aircraft System Integrated Defeat System (FS-LIDS) △AIM-120-series Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) △precision-guided weapons and upgrade packages for F-16 aircraft. In the same month, Washington authorized the sale of Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensors (LTAMDS) to Kuwait for up to $8 billion. Kuwait requested up to eight LTAMDS radars and associated power and support equipment. Citing the Iran war, the U.S. government determined that an emergency existed and waived the standard congressional review process under the Arms Export Control Act.

Such emergency sales continued in May. According to Reuters, the Donald Trump administration authorized more than $8.6 billion in arms sales to Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Israel that month, invoking emergency powers to bypass the normal congressional review process. The approved packages included a $4.01 billion Patriot interceptor replenishment package and $992.4 million in APKWS II systems for Qatar, as well as a $2.5 billion Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) package for Kuwait. The UAE was also authorized to acquire 1,500 APKWS II guidance sections and related equipment for up to $147.6 million. In June, the State Department authorized an additional sale of counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS) to Kuwait worth up to $1.98 billion. The package included Anduril’s Roadrunner-M interceptors, Anvil-series interceptor drones, Sentry surveillance systems and electronic warfare equipment.

Shifts in the Regional Military Balance

Saudi Arabia and Qatar subsequently secured further additions to their military capabilities. In July, the State Department approved the sale of APKWS II systems to Saudi Arabia for up to $1.96 billion. Saudi Arabia requested a total of 20,000 guidance sections, comprising 10,000 for air-to-air applications and 10,000 for air-to-ground use. In August, Washington authorized the proposed sale of up to four KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling aircraft and related equipment to Qatar for $4.5 billion. The package included spare engines, radar warning receivers, infrared countermeasure systems and missile warning sensors.

These large-scale U.S. arms sales are also indirectly affecting the military balance in the Middle East. Regional partners that have consistently acquired U.S.-made weapons are using their enhanced military capabilities to intensify pressure on Iran-aligned armed groups. In Yemen, for example, forces loyal to the internationally recognized government recently launched a major offensive to recapture territory from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels with Saudi support. Yemeni government forces led the ground offensive, while the Saudi-led military coalition deployed roughly 100 fighter aircraft to provide air support. The Yemeni government subsequently said its forces had retaken Dhubab and other key Houthi-held areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Table 1. Effects of U.S. Arms Sales to the Middle East

Additional Benefits of Arms Sales

As Gulf partners gain greater military influence, the regional security costs borne directly by the United States decline. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has identified encouraging Middle Eastern partners such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to assume greater military responsibilities as one of the principal policy objectives of U.S. arms sales to the region. Washington’s strategic influence also endures beyond the initial sale. Operating advanced weapons such as fighter aircraft and air defense systems over the long term requires ammunition, spare parts, maintenance and technical assistance supplied by the United States. CRS has concluded that these features of military logistics supply chains leave Middle Eastern partners substantially dependent on Washington for sustained military operations.

Overseas arms sales also help underpin the U.S. defense production base. CRS identifies achieving the “economies of scale” needed to sustain the domestic defense industry as a central economic incentive for U.S. arms exports. Advanced weapons systems entail substantial fixed costs to maintain production facilities, testing infrastructure and specialist personnel. Higher production volumes allow the same facilities to operate for longer and spread fixed costs across more units, lowering unit production costs. Reflecting these considerations, the Department of Defense announced FMS reforms in June 2023 that incorporated allied and partner requirements into the defense industrial base’s “demand signals” and outlined plans to expand production capacity for weapons systems facing high demand and limited supply. Some of these measures were subsequently incorporated into policy and procurement processes.

Protracted U.S.-Iran Military Tensions

This structure could give the Trump administration greater scope to sustain military pressure on Iran. In an interview with Time published on October 1, President Trump replied, “It’s possible,” when asked whether he would intensify the bombing of Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Asked about his earlier statement at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly that he could annihilate Iran, he said, “I will, and I can,” adding, “I never think we can have peace as long as Iran exists.” Following Trump’s hard-line remarks, Bloomberg reported the same day, citing U.S. officials, that the Pentagon could deploy an additional aircraft carrier and approximately 10,000 Navy and Marine Corps personnel to the Persian Gulf. The move was described as an effort to broaden the options available to U.S. military commanders should Trump decide to expand the offensive.

Iran has strongly rejected Trump’s stance. During a meeting in Tehran on October 5 with visiting Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said, “Our problem with the United States is that whenever we come to the negotiating table, war is immediately imposed on us.” He added, “Negotiations with hostile forces that engage daily in assassinations, sanctions, pressure and threats, and break their promises, are meaningless, and the Iranian people will not accept such an approach.” He further charged, “So far, they [the United States] have attacked us three times after negotiations, which shows that they are not seeking dialogue.”