“Iran War Spreads to the Red Sea”: U.S. Faces Dilemma Over Ending or Widening Conflict as Burdens Mount on Neighboring Countries

Hormuz blockade and Red Sea attacks threaten alternative oil shipping routes
Britain and France respond to Saudi appeals with refueling support and defensive deployments
Persistent threats amid U.S. delays in ending the war deepen neighboring countries’ military and economic burdens

With the Iran war blocking crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks now threatening the Red Sea alternative, the burden of the conflict is spreading to neighboring countries. Saudi Arabia faces the dual challenge of defending its oil infrastructure and countering offensives by the Houthis, Iran’s proxy force, while Egypt risks losing transit revenue from the Suez Canal and its oil pipeline, both major sources of foreign currency, as Red Sea shipping is disrupted. In response to Saudi requests for assistance, France has decided to deploy military assets to defend the port of Yanbu, while Britain has agreed to provide aerial refueling for Saudi aircraft. The United States, however, prepared strikes against the Houthis only to put them on hold amid mounting strain on its forces from the Iran war and concerns over escalation. With neither a solution to end the Iran war nor a means of deterring Houthi attacks in place, countries face growing military and economic burdens in protecting oil supply chains.

France to Deploy Forces to Defend Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port

According to Reuters and other international media reports on September 27 (all dates local), French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with French broadcasters TF1 and France 2 on September 24 that France planned to deploy military assets, including personnel, radar systems and defensive systems, to protect Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu base on the Red Sea coast. He firmly ruled out direct French participation in hostilities, however. “We are not intervening in any conflict, and the deployment of military assets is solely intended to protect this facility,” Macron emphasized. Asked whether France would deploy additional Rafale fighter jets to the area, he noted that some aircraft were already stationed there and signaled that France would respond flexibly as the situation developed.

France’s decision to deploy advanced defensive capabilities reflects the rapidly worsening energy crisis emanating from the Middle East. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, Yanbu has served as a critical hub for Saudi crude shipments to Europe, bypassing Iran’s efforts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, however, the Houthis have escalated their threats, launching ballistic missile and drone attacks against facilities belonging to Saudi state oil company Aramco at the port. Air attacks by Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq temporarily halted operations at the bypass pipeline, directly disrupting crude and diesel supply chains to Europe. France appears to have concluded that it could no longer remain on the sidelines.

South Korea Faces Red Sea Defense Burden and Retaliation Risks From Deployment

Securing Red Sea shipping routes is also an urgent priority for South Korea. Since the Iran war began, increasing volumes of crude have been loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port for delivery to Ulsan, deepening the domestic supply chain’s reliance on the Red Sea. Uncertainty over U.S. military assistance has also increased pressure on oil-importing countries to protect shipping routes themselves. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, must simultaneously repel Houthi attacks and secure safe oil transport routes, yet even the United States, its principal ally, initially declined its request for military assistance. Washington reportedly promised instead to share intelligence that Saudi Arabia could use in its own defense and identify potential targets.

After the United States declined its request to strike the Houthis, Saudi Arabia shifted toward asking China to persuade Iran, which supports the group, to intervene. The approach amounts to a diplomatic division of labor: seeking military intelligence from its U.S. ally while entrusting China with pressuring its adversary. Saudi appeals for assistance also extended to France, Britain, Pakistan and Egypt. As stocks of interceptor missiles used against Houthi attacks dwindled, Riyadh reportedly requested air-defense support from those countries as well. With Saudi Arabia seeking assistance from multiple partners, the possibility that South Korea could also be asked to undertake military roles, such as escorting vessels or deploying defensive assets, cannot be ruled out.

Deploying military assets, however, entails the risk of armed confrontation with Iran and the Houthis. South Korean forces could become embroiled in hostilities if they intercept Houthi missiles and drones while protecting shipping routes. Iranian figures have already raised the prospect of retaliation against South Korean assets in the Middle East in response to a deployment. According to Middle East Eye, Mohammad Marandi, a University of Tehran professor and former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team, warned in a broadcast interview on September 4 that Iran could regard South Korea as an enemy and attack its economic and military assets in the region if Seoul sent troops. Iran specifically identified South Korean assets in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. The threat implied that civilian assets, including corporate operations in those countries, could be targeted alongside military facilities.

Britain Limits Saudi Defense Support Amid Escalation Concerns

These risks also explain Britain’s decision to support Saudi Arabia through limited measures such as aerial refueling. Speaking aboard his flight to New York for the United Nations General Assembly on September 21, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham said Britain had agreed to provide aerial refueling for Saudi aircraft conducting defensive operations. Britain plans to deploy one Voyager tanker to refuel Saudi fighter jets, initially providing support for several weeks before reviewing whether to continue as conditions evolve. The decision accepted Saudi Arabia’s request while limiting the mission’s scope and duration. Burnham said oil shipping corridors needed to remain open as Saudi Arabia came under attack, describing the measure as necessary to protect British interests and those of countries in the region.

Britain’s decision was also driven by mounting domestic economic pressure from higher energy prices. The Middle East war has pushed up energy costs and intensified inflationary pressures, while government borrowing costs have risen to their highest levels in years. Ahead of his new government’s first budget, Burnham must weigh the implications of oil supply disruptions for both households and the public finances. In explaining the support for Saudi Arabia, he explicitly referred to the cost-of-living pressures facing British citizens and linked secure oil shipping routes to the country’s economic interests. Burnham said he would pursue both the protection of oil transport routes and an end to the war to stabilize energy supplies. During the September 21 briefing aboard his flight, he also said he would urge President Trump to bring the Iran war to a swift conclusion at their meeting scheduled for the following day.

Table 1. The Trump Administration’s Deliberations and Decision to Suspend Houthi Strikes

Repeated Reversals on Houthi Strikes Expose Trump’s Military Dilemma

Under pressure to end the war, President Trump must weigh military pressure on Iran against the prospect of opening another front in Yemen. Intensifying the offensive to extract concessions from Iran inevitably compounds the strain on the forces and ammunition available to counter the Houthis. The decision to prepare strikes against the group and then suspend them just before execution illustrates this dilemma. When Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, called Trump on September 10 to request attacks on the Houthis, the president initially refused. With the Iran war still unresolved and U.S. forces still deployed around the Strait of Hormuz, he appeared reluctant to become entangled on another front.

The situation changed after a second call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on September 17. When the crown prince again requested intervention to restrain the Houthis as they intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia, Trump continued discussions with his senior advisers over the weekend about possible airstrikes against the group. In particular, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations in the Middle East, prepared scenarios for strikes in Yemen and briefed Defense Secretary (Secretary of War) Pete Hegseth on September 19. Following these deliberations, Trump reversed his initial position and ordered preparations for airstrikes against the Houthis.

By midday on September 20, however, Trump had reversed course again, deciding to put the strikes on hold for the time being. According to The New York Times (NYT), military commanders had already approved the targets, and bombs had been loaded onto the fighter jets assigned to the operation. Opposition from advisers concerned about the cumulative strain of the Iran war on U.S. forces reportedly contributed to the last-minute decision. A senior U.S. official told the NYT that most of the president’s close advisers, mindful of those pressures, had expressed deep skepticism about intervening in the war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis or had opposed it outright.

Mounting Military and Economic Burdens on Neighboring Countries

As the United States hesitates over further intervention, the burden of the war on neighboring countries has continued to grow. Saudi Arabia has found itself conducting large-scale military operations once again on the Yemeni front, which had quieted following the 2022 truce. After seizing the Red Sea port of Mocha and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Houthis advanced into the inland highlands, threatening territory controlled by Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces. According to Reuters, the Houthis sought to capture strategic positions linking the Red Sea coast with government-held areas in the south, prompting Saudi airstrikes. Saudi Arabia’s defensive commitments now encompass its own territory and oil infrastructure as well as the strongholds of allied forces in Yemen. On September 26, the Saudi-led coalition again said it had intercepted Houthi drones and ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh and the southwestern city of Khamis Mushait, while the Houthis claimed Saudi forces had carried out airstrikes and missile attacks across several parts of Yemen.

Across the Red Sea, Egypt also faces the challenge of protecting both Suez Canal revenue and regional security. Houthi attacks on vessels have reduced canal traffic, while disruptions to Saudi crude shipments have intensified pressure on a major source of foreign currency. According to the Associated Press, a substantial share of the Saudi crude diverted to the Red Sea after the Iran war began was transported through either the Suez Canal or Egypt’s pipeline linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. Disruptions to Saudi exports therefore also affect Egypt’s canal and pipeline revenues. Plans to support alternative routes for Saudi crude exports are also at risk. Following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt proposed receiving crude shipped from Yanbu and transporting it through its SUMED pipeline to the Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir. The proposal was intended to support Saudi oil exports while strengthening Egypt’s role as an energy transport hub. But with Houthi attacks now threatening even the sea route from Yanbu to Egypt, Cairo has also been left to shoulder the burden of protecting Red Sea shipping routes.